While Notre Dame appears to be in a good position for the college football playoff, ranked No. 10 in the first rankings, the Irish are not locked into a playoff spot, even if they go 11-1.
Photo by The Irish Tribune
SOUTH BEND, Ind. -- When the initial College Football Playoff rankings came out on Tuesday night, Notre Dame appeared to be able to control their own destiny.
Being ranked No. 10 in the country, it appeared the playoff committee had accounted for Notre Dame's terrible loss to Northern Illinois, but acknowledged their two, current, top 25 wins against Texas A&M and Louisville.
From the outsider's perspective, the answer to this statement is easy: If the Irish win out and finish their season 11-1, there is no way for Notre Dame to be bounced out of the playoff.
Right? Well, no, not exactly. Let's break this down.
Holding the Big 12 and ACC to One
At the start of the season, I emphasized that Notre Dame's worst-case scenario was the ACC and Big 12 each having more than one playoff team.
With Iowa State and Kansas State losing last weekend, the Big 12 will likely only get one playoff team, ideally BYU; yet, there is always this scenario:
Say BYU goes undefeated in the regular season, going 12-0, but loses to a one-loss Iowa State club in the Big 12 championship game. Iowa State gets the automatic bid, but does a one-loss BYU get in over a one-loss Notre Dame?
On Tuesday, CFP chairman Warde Manuel didn't give Rece Davis a straight answer when Davis inquired about the possible penalty of losing the conference championship game.
Regardless of Manuel's discretion, I believe the committee wouldn't penalize a team's lone loss in the 13th game, which Notre Dame isn't even eligible to play in.
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Then, there is the ACC. The ACC is a bit different because of the quality teams is a bit better. In the rankings, the committee has Miami at No. 4, and SMU is just on the outskirts of the Top 12, sitting at No. 13.
If the same scenario occurred, in which SMU beats Miami in the ACC championship game, the Hurricanes would, without a doubt, be ranked higher than the Irish. Knowing this, Notre Dame needs the Mustangs to drop one more game and needs Miami to continue on with their undefeated season.
If either the Big 12 or the ACC get two teams in, it could spell trouble for the Fighting Irish.
Limiting the SEC
Immediately after the rankings were released, I outlined this nightmare scenario:
In this case, the SEC would be left with six two-loss teams, all worthy at making the playoff.
To simplify, this is what Notre Dame needs to happen over the course of the next month:
No. 1. Go Dawgs.
Notre Dame needs Georgia to beat Ole Miss and Tennessee. If Georgia wins both big games, Ole Miss would be eliminated from the playoff picture, and a two-loss Tennessee would certainly fall below the Irish.
No. 2. Geaux Tigers
The next biggest SEC domino to fall will be this weekend's matchup in Baton Rouge. Alabama vs LSU is being hyped up as a playoff elimination game, and rightfully so. I'd have the Irish leaning towards the Tigers because LSU has a harder schedule the rest of the way than the Crimson Tide, by a little margin, and the fact that Notre Dame and LSU have a mutual opponent, Texas A&M, that favors the Irish.
No. 3. In-State Toss-up
The biggest game returning to the college football schedule this year during rivalry week is undoubtedly Texas @ Texas A&M. This is where the schedule gets tricky. On one hand, a Texas A&M victory over Texas would look fantastic for Notre Dame's strength-of-schedule, but would it have the Aggies leapfrog the Fighting Irish? Would a two-loss Texas with no real quality win still be ahead of the Irish? Personally, I think that it is a toss-up, strictly based on SEC bias. On the other hand, say Texas dismantles the Aggies. While it weakens Notre Dame's best win, Texas A&M would be yet another team out of the playoff picture. Either way, I'd lean for an Aggies win, even though it might backfire and cause some pandemonium.
Big Ten Slip-up
Over the next few weeks, the Big Ten is the conference that will soon take shape, and it relies on only a few games.
This week, there are two games to circle on your calendars.
No. 1. Michigan @ Indiana
The biggest question mark this year is simply, "Is Indiana legit"?
Nobody knows.
This week's game against the Wolverines will provide some answers, but not the full picture. Despite Michigan's offensive woes, the Wolverines still have NFL talent sprinkled across the board.
Can Indiana keep up with Michigan's athletes across the field? Can Michigan win this game without a true answer at quarterback?
With Indiana's poor strength-of-schedule how they look in their next two games, this week against Michigan and then against the Buckeyes, will be critical for the outlook of the Big Ten.
No. 2. Washington @ Penn State
Happy Valley. White Out. Packed House.
Not directly a recipe for success for Jedd Fisch's team in his first year with the Huskies, but this is a game that Washington can win.
After the mental and physical toll from last week's one-score loss to Ohio State, I'm intrigued to see how Drew Allar and James Franklin bounce back in this one.
Penn State is the team that I thought the committee put the most blind faith into. Yes, the defense is legit on all three levels, but like the Hoosiers, who has Penn State beat?
Illinois? Not exactly the most eye-popping win.
After this game, the Nittany Lions are cruising the rest of the season, with only one more real scare on the road against Minnesota.
If Penn State can navigate through this week with everyone's emotions on high, the Big 10 is likely to get four teams into the playoff.
Wrap-Up
I recognize that this is all speculation and that if Notre Dame loses, it becomes moot. While the Fighting Irish are looking at the task at hand, in this case the Florida State Seminoles, I am allowed to look at the bigger picture. I am not a player. I am not a coach. I am simply painting the possible future. But with Marcus Freeman constantly reminding his team about the ramifications of looking ahead, I am confident that the Irish will run the table and treat every opponent as if it is their last game of the year.
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Best breakdown I’ve seen yet for how all these conference games down the stretch will affect us. 100% agree that we need more than a couple 1 loss and 2 loss SEC/Big Ten teams to take another loss and be out of contention. Michigan and Washington winning this week would be HUGE. Miami winning out and the ACC would be helpful and keep just the conference champion from the ACC and Big12 the only teams from their conference in the playoff. Either way we have to handle business, plenty of trap games left. Go Irish ☘️