Notre Dame continues to eye a bid for the College Football Playoff. Being more than halfway finished with the regular season, how does Notre Dame fair in their odds of being the third team in program history to make the playoff?
Photo by The Irish Tribune
With Notre Dame entering the final stretch of the season, and real playoff chances on the line, the conversation of the 12-team playoff has become a lot more interesting. Notre Dame finds themselves No. 8 in the AP poll, but that could change in a little under a week when the playoff committee comes out with their first college football playoff rankings. At 7-1, the Irish are squarely in the conversation for a playoff appearance, but let’s take a look at some of the positives and negatives at play, and what Notre Dame will need to do to secure their spot in the playoffs.
Positives
The first positive Notre Dame has going for them is their schedule. Their schedule has been a bit up and down, with some games appearing more winnable than before, while others have become more difficult. As it stands now, the remaining schedule will be a plus for Notre Dame in these final four games. Winning out is the name of the game for Notre Dame, and with favorable upcoming opponents, they must avoid another slip up. Notre Dame will be favored in each of these games, but that doesn't mean it will be a walk in the park. They still must face an undefeated Army team, and a game in Los Angeles against USC to close the year.
Notre Dame's quality wins are another reason why they have a serious chance to make the playoff. As it has turned out, Notre Dame's week one win over then No. 20 Texas A&M in College Station, has become one of the best wins in college football. A&M currently sits alone atop the SEC, making them one of the premier teams in college football. As long as A&M keeps winning, this win will continue to propel the Irish up the rankings if they do the same. This isn't the only quality win Notre Dame has, though, with wins over Louisville and Navy adding to a strong resume. Both teams were ranked when they played Notre Dame, making that three ranked wins on the season. With Army and USC still on the schedule, there is even more potential for quality wins, which would really bolster an already solid resume.
The third positive for Notre Dame is time. The loss to NIU may still loom over the team, but at this point in the season, it feels like forever ago. Marcus Freeman and the rest of the team have done well to prove that their singular loss was a fluke by dominating opponents both physically and on the score board. If Notre Dame continues to play at this level, they will help change the perception of the team, showing the country that they are a lot better than the team that lost to NIU.
Negatives
It goes without saying that the biggest negative of this season has been the unexplainable loss to NIU. This loss came in week two of the season, and Notre Dame has done all they can to rectify that mistake. The biggest aspect of this loss is it is considered to be one of the worst losses for any team still fighting for a spot in the playoff. This reality could do a lot to hold Notre Dame back, possibly losing the chance to host a playoff game. A loss like that puts a ceiling on how high a team can get in the polls, and the committee could; and should hold it against them.
Although Notre Dame's remaining schedule may be a positive, their schedule, as a whole doesn’t leave much room for error. Notre Dame currently ranks 59th in strength of schedule, according to ESPN. This number is similar to other schools contending for a playoff birth, but with one loss already, there is no margin for error. With a strength of schedule like Notre Dame's, a team that good is expected to go undefeated. There may be room for losses, but they can't come at the hands of NIU. SEC and Big Ten teams get the benefit of the doubt when it comes to conference wins and losses, even if those opponents aren't considered "good". This means Tennessee's loss to Arkansas is looked at a lot differently than Notre Dame’s loss, making it necessary for them to finish 11-1.
It goes without saying that Notre Dame's independent status is always a topic of conversation when it comes to making the playoffs. In a year where the SEC may get four or five teams, and the Big Ten might get four teams, there is not a lot of breathing room. Notre Dame will also have to deal with the same thing they deal with every year, which is not playing on championship Saturday. Teams will always get a bump for contending in a conference championship, even if they lose. Notre Dame's seeding could also be affected during conference championship week if there is a bid stealer. Remember, conference champions get an automatic bid, so if a team won their conference that was on the outside looking in, that would mean an at large bid would likely be taken up by another team. These spots are valuable to Notre Dame, and on championship Saturday, they will just have to wait and see.
As it looks right now, Notre Dame is in a good spot. They can almost guarantee their bid in the playoff if they win the remainder of their games. However, with this being the first year of the 12-team playoff, and potentially some chaos in the last few weeks, nothing is for certain. The SEC and the Big Ten still have a lot of consequential games to be played, and conference champions to be decided. All of this will have a huge impact on the playoff picture, and the hardest part for Notre Dame and their fans will be to sit back and watch it unfold.
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