The first round of rankings for the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff has been released, and the 13-member committee has given the first glimpse into how they’re assessing the top teams with 4 weeks left in the regular season.
Photo by The Irish Tribune
The official CFP top-25 rankings are listed below:
The top 4 seeds going to No. 1 Oregon, No. 3 UGA, No. 4 Miami, and No. 9 BYU make sense as they’re all the current Conference Title favorites, with two of them undefeated and the other two with only 1 loss. Penn State’s loss to OSU pushed the Buckeyes up to No. 2 in the rankings, but that only earned them the No. 5 seed in the bracket, while Penn State dropped to No. 6 in the polls but earned the No. 7 seed. As the current No. 7 seed, the Nittany Lions would host the No. 10 seed Fighting Irish in round 1, with the winner going on to face the current No. 2 seed, UGA.
The CFP committee pointed to the quality of OSU’s loss (No. 1 Oregon) over UGA’s loss (No. 11 Alabama) as a determining factor in giving the Buckeyes the edge. This could pose some trouble for the Irish, as they’re the 2nd lowest-ranked 1-loss team in the top-12 behind 7-1 Boise State.
As the No. 10 seed, Notre Dame would be on the backside of the playoff bracket and would not get to host a 1st-round home game. Their status as one of the lowest-ranked 1-loss teams means they have to win out while the rest of the 1-loss teams cannibalize each other.
What Notre Dame Needs To Do
Following a statement win over Navy, the Irish moved back into the top 10 for the first time since their week 2 loss to NIU. Although Navy isn’t necessarily a blue-chip powerhouse, the win became Notre Dame’s 3rd over a top-25 opponent this year, and pushed them up to No. 8 in the polls. Unfortunately, a BYE week and some top-25 attrition dropped Notre Dame back to No. 10 in the AP and subsequently in the first CFP rankings.
Notre Dame’s path to this point has taken a course that no one could have predicted, but as the first round of CFP rankings shows, the Irish don’t wholly control their own fate. Much of their final fate will be left up to the CFP committee’s interpretations of each team and how the rest of the top 25 shakes out. Notre Dame’s objectives for the remainder of the regular season are pretty cut and dry.
Notre Dame Must Win Out
The Irish only have 4 games remaining and will likely be heavy favorites in at least 3 of them.
There’s a possibility that a loss in one of these 4 games wouldn’t completely eliminate the
Irish from CFP contention, but at best, their seeding would take a hit and make their path through the bracket much more difficult. Thankfully, the Irish have the advantage of a BYE
week and back-to-back home games before traveling to New York for a neutral site matchup
with Army, followed by LA to close out the year against the Trojans.
- Home VS FSU - 11/09
- Home VS Virginia - 11/16
- @ Yankee Stadium VS No. 25 Army - 11/23
- @ USC - 11/30
A loss to Army would be the least painful of the 4, as they’re currently ranked, but a loss to
any of the other 3 would give the Irish 2 unranked losses for the year and increase their
likelihood of missing out on a spot. Although we’ve seen the Irish falter when they shouldn’t,
and fail to progress at times this season, nearly every intangible lies in their favor during this final stretch, and all signs point to the Irish winning out. Notre Dame’s safest bet is to win all
4 games and end the season with a 10-game win streak. That's the only formula they have
to get advantageous seeding.
Win With Style Points
Notre Dame’s easy remaining schedule both helps and hurts them. For one, it should be
easier to win out and end the season 11-1, but at the same time, the lack of competition
means the Irish must not only win, but win impressively. The goal will be to substantially
separate themselves (e.g., Purdue, Navy) from their final four opponents and remove all
doubt from the CFP committee that they’ve hit their full stride and are legit.
FSU and Virginia should be easy wins by decent margins, whereas the Army game will be a
tougher but more impressive win, but not one that the Irish can afford to keep close. To a
degree, Notre Dame’s dismantling of Navy set the bar high for this game, and they’ll have to
avoid an unimpressive performance if they want to maintain their aesthetics for the
committee.
The only genuinely concerning game here is the trip to LA against USC. The Trojans
shouldn’t be an issue for the Irish on paper, but the nature of this rivalry and it coming on the
road means anything could happen. Even then, the Irish can’t afford too close of a game
against an unimpressive Trojans squad. If the Irish don’t win by double digits against the
likes of FSU (1-8), Virginia (4-4), and USC (4-5), the committee would likely drop them in the
rankings in favor of more impressive teams with either fewer losses or stronger schedules.
Essentially, Notre Dame can only help itself in two ways: perfection for the remainder of the
regular season and sheer dominance.
Keep Leonard and the Passing Game Going
The key for the Irish will be maintaining Riley Leonard’s season-long ramp-up in the passing
game. If Leonard can at least maintain the performance he had against Navy, it’ll be a good
enough balance with Notre Dame’s elite ground game to be a threat to playoff teams later
on. As of right now, the Irish are good enough to win out and make the playoffs - but we don’t
know if they’ll be good enough to make an actual run past the first round. Notre Dame’s
success may depend on Leonard maintaining his current passing trajectory, so polishing
things up during an easy final 4-game stretch will be crucial when competition increases
later.
Avoid Any More Significant Injuries
Unlike the other 3 points on our list, this one is not really within Notre Dame’s control. Since
spring ball, the Irish have collectively suffered 13 season-ending injuries that have made a
serious dent in their depth and experience, and are now just one more injury away from
serious trouble in several position groups. If the Irish suffer any more injuries - even minor
ones, it could affect their ability to make the playoffs at all, or deliver a crippled one-loss Irish
team to an early 1st round exit. Staying healthy will be key to the Irish staying competitive.
What Other Teams Need To Do
Notre Dame's Key Wins Need to Continue Winning
Notre Dame’s best 3 wins have come against TAMU, Louisville, and Navy. Any and all of
these teams winning out from here on can only strengthen Notre Dame’s CFP pitch.
- No. 14 Texas A&M (7-1)
- No. 22 Louisville (6-3)
- Navy (7-1)
- No. 25 Army (8-0)
This is a bit of a tightrope for the Irish because of their already weak schedule. If one or
several of those teams start to slide, the Irish will have even less to brag about. Beating
Army and then Army beating Navy in the AAC title game would be the perfect final push late
in the season to show off for the committee. A&M is currently undefeated and leading the
SEC ahead of a 1 loss UGA, but they’ll have to face Texas before the end of the season. If
A&M can beat the Longhorns or at least win the SEC title, the Irish will have one of the very
best wins in the country against a possible conference champion.
Big Games Need to Benefit Notre Dame
The more one- and two-loss teams in the CFP rankings, the better. This means late-season
matchups that turn one-loss teams into two-loss teams and title game matchups that knock
off undefeated teams.
Possible Outcomes
Due to how the playoff is formatted, Notre Dame’s highest possible seeding would be No. 5, as the top 4 seeds are automatically assigned to the highest-ranking conference champions. Thus, they’re also ineligible for a first-round BYE.
Because the Irish aren't undefeated, it's unlikely they’ll be ranked high enough to earn the 5th seed, which has the advantage of playing the 12th seed in round 1. This narrows Notre Dame’s window to seeds 6-12.
As we can see from the first round of CFP rankings, the Irish can’t afford to drop a second game. Flat out, they have one of the worst losses in the top 25, and a second loss would drop them well behind every other 1 or 2 loss teams, with the possible exception of TAMU. That would quickly drop them out of the top 12, and even with Conference Title game losses factored in, they’d be against opponents who are too high of quality to drop them below the Irish.
If we accept the oddsmakers, 11-1 is both Notre Dame’s best-case scenario and, thankfully, the most realistic. The advantage of Notre Dame’s loss is that it came very early, and although it may be the worst loss among the CFP hopefuls, a 10-game win streak to end the season, along with 4 wins over top-25 opponents (with a win over Army), would almost assuredly earn them a spot in the playoff. If the Irish win out, they’d likely be ranked too high to fall to the 11th and 12th seeds or behind several other 1-loss teams. So, they’d probably earn the 7th or 8th seed and face off against the 9th or 10th seed, respectively. The higher their seeding, the easier the postseason path.
Additionally, the 5, 6, 7, and 8 seeds will host in round 1 and have home-field advantage. While not guaranteed, Notre Dame’s best chance at hosting in round 1 is going 11-1. This would put the Irish in the best possible position to succeed in the playoffs, avoiding a low seed and a tougher 1st round opponent on the road.
Biggest Games Left
Bracketology
Oregon has a clear path to their title game, while UGA still has to play No. 7 Tennessee, meaning one of them will get their 2nd loss before the end of the regular season, likely dropping them behind the Irish and out of a shot at the SEC Title. Like Oregon, Miami has a clear path until their title game, but No. 5 Texas will have to play No. 14 TAMU in the final week of the regular season. That game will have huge implications for the Irish if A&M can pull off the upset. It’ll knock 2-loss Texas out of the SEC title chase and likely behind the Irish in the rankings while giving Notre Dame’s best win a big resume boost.
Things get tricky with Penn State only having 1 loss and no ranked opponents for the rest of the season, but 1-loss OSU still has to face currently undefeated No. 8 Indiana. If the Buckeyes beat the Hoosiers at home, that single loss could keep both teams ahead of the Irish because of the ugly NIU loss. If IU beats Ohio State, it could drop a 2-loss OSU behind the Irish but would definitely keep the Hoosiers ahead of Notre Dame. Whoever emerges from the BIG 10 will ultimately face Oregon in the Championship. The Irish should hope for an Oregon win to knock a 2-loss BIG 10 runner-up behind them if they want a chance at a home-field host seed.
BYU has a pretty clear path to an undefeated regular season and likely one of the easier Conference Title games against either Kansas State or Iowa State. Those two teams still have to play each other, and if ISU wins, they’d likely take on the Cougars in the championship.
The real pipe dream here is for someone to knock off Boise State to help either Army or Navy into the playoffs to make the Irish look good, but the Mustangs will likely hold onto their spot at the top of the Group-of-5 Conferences.
Possible Seeding Outcomes
Due to how the playoff is formatted, Notre Dame’s highest possible seeding would be No. 5, as the top 4 seeds are automatically assigned to the highest-ranking conference champions. Thus, they’re also ineligible for a first-round BYE.
Because the Irish aren't undefeated, it's unlikely they’ll be ranked high enough to earn the 5th seed, which has the advantage of playing the 12th seed in round 1. This narrows Notre Dame’s window to seeds 6-12.
As we can see from the first round of CFP rankings, the Irish can’t afford to drop a second game. Flat out, they have one of the worst losses in the top 25, and a second loss would drop them well behind every other 1 or 2-loss team, with the possible exception of TAMU. That would quickly drop them out of the top 12, and even with Conference Title game losses factored in, they’d be against opponents who are too high of quality to drop them below the Irish.
The 5, 6, 7, and 8 seeds will host in round 1 and have home-field advantage. While not
guaranteed, Notre Dame’s best chance at hosting in round 1 is going 11-1. This would put the Irish in the best possible position to succeed in the playoffs, avoiding a low seed and a tougher 1st round opponent on the road.
If Notre Dame wins out and ends the season 11-1, they should make the 12-team cut.
The lingering question is - where exactly will that be? Will they stay at the No. 10 seed like in round 1 of the CFP rankings? Will they move up or move down?
Ultimately, the Irish are left at the back of the bracket, waiting for the middle seeds to pick one another off until they move up into a host seed. They need a clear-cut top-4 seeds after the Conference Title Games, with conference runner-ups having two losses. Those two losses could give an 11-1 Notre Dame with no Conference Championship the edge in seeding. Every little bit counts in a game of inches, even in the rankings, especially in the new 12-team CFP era.
The future CFP rankings will be released on the following dates:
● Tuesday, November 12 at 9 PM ET
● Tuesday, November 19 at 7 PM ET
● Tuesday, November 26 at 8 PM ET
● Tuesday, December 3 at 7 PM ET
● Sunday, December 8 at Noon ET
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