With zero passing touchdowns yet to be thrown, how can Riley Leonard and the Notre Dame offense get back on their feet?
Photo by The Irish Tribune
After Saturday's loss to Northern Illinois, Marcus Freeman stated "We have been here before" when referring to the team's mindset going forward. Well if you are a Notre Dame fan of a certain age, we have been here before. We are all too familiar with the mind-numbing, mistake-filled, heart-wrenching losses, which have now become an almost annual occurrence under Freeman's tenure. Notre Dame suffered an early season gut punch to their playoff chances in a year where many talking heads out there assumed they would be a lock. Any time you lose at home as a 28-point favorite, there is plenty of blame to go around, but it's hard to not first turn to the offense, which could only muster 14 points at home against a MAC opponent. Generally, a lot of my focus is on scouting high school recruits and how they may fit Notre Dame in the seasons to come, but I wanted to take a step back and "self-scout" what I saw from Saturday after having the displeasure of rewatching every offensive snap multiple times. I can honestly say it may get worse before it gets better.
When Riley Leonard arrived in South Bend, he did so as a proven commodity as a dynamic runner and less proven as a thrower. In his time at Duke, Leonard was a 60% completion guy with a 24 to 10 touchdown to interception ratio. Those aren't eye-popping numbers by any means, but it's easy to point to the fact that he was at Duke, where his skill position guys were maybe not among the tops in the country. Still, when I revisited his film from Duke, and compared it to what I have seen through two games this season, there are more issues than I think are capable of being fixed quickly.
A common theme I have picked up on from watching Leonard is his inability to move WITHIN the pocket and not as a scrambler. There were multiple occasions Saturday where he rolled out early instead of climbing the pocket which unnecessarily cut off half the field. I understand the offensive line is somewhat young and inexperienced, but Leonard's lack of pocket awareness is leading to missed opportunities to step up and make multi-progression throws. That ties into my next point, which is when Leonard has to come off of his first read, his accuracy goes way down. I saw it during his time with Duke and I am seeing it now, the longer he stays in the pocket, his throwing mechanics start to unravel. Leonard does not reset his feet when working from one side of the field to the other, he does not square his shoulders, and this is leading to wildly inconsistent ball placement. NIU took advantage of this by playing a lot of press man coverage and not allowing for quick reads where Leonard is most comfortable. Leonard also does not seem to be playing with great field vision. One of the keys to being a successful QB is throwing with anticipation, and right now Leonard is taking extra hitches and making a lot of throws half a beat too late.
On Riley's first interception of the game, Jaden Greathouse ran a middle hook from the slot, when he came out of his break, there was plenty of space between him and the zone defender. The ball should have been on him as he turned but instead, Leonard took an extra hitch and threw the ball late which allowed the defender to close in, tip the ball, and ultimately led to a turnover. For whatever it's worth Mike Denbrock did not look happy with Leonard as he came to the sideline after this play. In the fourth quarter, with the game on the line, this is where Leonard's most frustrating throw all day took place. After completing back-to-back passes to Collins and finally building a little momentum, Leonard stepped up in the pocket only to woefully underthrow a deep post route intended for Kris Mitchell. Although the throw was a bit late, the fact that he was able to fully step into this throw and left it that short, to me is an arm talent issue. He does not display good velocity when throwing shorter route concepts and doesn't have the arm strength to truly stretch the field. I don't think all these issues that plague Riley Leonard can be remedied by a good week of practice or a motivational speech from the coaching staff. These flaws have flashed throughout his college career and are unlikely to disappear overnight.
Could a change at quarterback truly spark this Notre Dame offense? That question takes a bit of critical thinking. If you fall in the camp of thinking this is a byproduct of Marcus Freeman wanting to be as conservative as possible and just win through good defense and a run game then I ask you this: If he was unwilling to open things up with a senior QB, is he going to trust the young guys in that locker room like CJ Carr and Kenny Minchey who have much less experience? Steve Angeli played well in the bowl game against Oregon State last year and is a bit older, but has a much slower throwing motion than the young guys, can he get the ball out quick enough behind a still-learning offensive line? For me, Carr and Minchey both have major upside. Both can manipulate the pocket without bailing, both are very accurate, and both have the arm talent to keep defenses honest and stop them from loading the box. I would like to see a change sooner rather than later, but even if that were to happen, I do not know if it would lead to a drastically different-looking offense based on a few other observations I made from rewatching the game.
The playcalling was confusing at times. It was pretty obvious that NIU came into this game looking to make Notre Dame beat them by throwing. They consistently rolled a safety down into the box late and ND did nothing to counteract this besides bang their head against 8-man fronts. Not only that, but early on Denbrock had us in a lot of tight formations which made it much easier for the defense to crowd the line of scrimmage. It came across as us not adjusting to what the defense was doing and just wanting to maintain whatever game plan we had going into the game.
The receivers still don't seem to be in a position of strength. Some of this falls back onto bad QB play, but the consistent separation at the top of routes just isn't there. I know a lot of people will point to the great catch Beaux Collins made against Texas A&M, but even that was tightly contested. It just feels like every catch that is made has to be worked for. Riley Leonard's best throw in a Notre Dame uniform came late in the second quarter vs NIU, on a switch route concept. Greathouse ran a wheel from the slot, and Leonard put the ball right where it needed to be only for it to be dropped. Probably would have led to points on that drive and who knows what happens from there. No matter who plays QB going forward, receivers will need to do a much better job as a whole.
NIU did an excellent job of bringing late pressure and disguising blitzes. Without being on the sideline, I don't know who is currently responsible for calling protections at the line of scrimmage, but whoever it is will need to do a much better job in the weeks to come. This young Oline is struggling with exotic looks. On the final drive of the game, they showed a seven-man blitz. Two dropped into coverage at the snap so they only brought five rushers vs Notre Dame's six blockers. Protection should have been slid to the left, but instead, Anthonie Knapp took on the defensive end, Sam Pendleton blocked no one, and Jadarian Price took on the blitzer up the middle, leaving the nickel unblocked, forcing Riley out of the pocket and into an incomplete pass. If it was blocked up properly, there was a chance to hit Collins on an in-cut route that would have got Notre Dame to the 35-yard line, making Mitch Jeter's game-winning attempt a 52-yarder and very much makeable.
Honestly, the offense was a little lucky to even get a chance at a game-winning kick. On NIU's final drive, the refs called them half a yard short on their third down run that to me very much looked like a first. This would have allowed them to eat up the rest of the clock and attempt a game-winning kick with no time left.
The season is not lost. There are ten more games on the schedule and plenty more time to write the book of the season. Freeman and Denbrock will need to sit down and have an honest conversation about what is best for this offense going forward. If they stick with Riley, I don't expect a major jump in production, but I would expect more designs that play to his strengths. It is also gut check time for the WR room. Multiple transfers were brought in to try to help transform ND into a more dynamic offense, and so far that has not been the case. The offensive line must continue to learn on the fly and try to recreate the momentum of the late-game drives they had vs A&M consistently, opening up holes and getting runners into space. It's going to be an eleven-man effort on that side of the ball if Notre Dame wants to experience any big-picture success this year, and I suggest we all buckle up because it very well may be a bumpy ride.
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