The Fighting Irish welcome the Virginia Cavaliers to South Bend this weekend for Senior Day and the final game of their 2024 home slate. This is only the 5th meeting between the two schools, and the Irish currently hold a 4-0 lead in the series. Their first matchup came back in 1989 at the old Giants Stadium at the Meadowlands, but they didn’t face off again until Notre Dame signed its scheduling agreement with the ACC. Since then, the Irish have played the Cavs in 2015, 2019, and 2021, but this will be only the second time the Irish will host the matchup at home. This is the last of Notre Dame’s “easier” matchups this season, with only No. 24 Army and arch-rival USC left to go, but they’ll have to avoid another letdown game and keep the CFP committee entertained.
Here’s everything you need to know ahead of Saturday’s game.
Photo by The Irish Tribune
Virginia:
UVA has had a rough go of it in recent years; they haven’t posted a winning record since 2019 and parted ways with former head coach of 6 years Bronco Mendenhall after (5-5) and (6-6) seasons over 2020 & 2021. Current head coach Tony Elliot entered his 3rd year with the Cavaliers on the hot seat with a program thirsty for change. He posted back-to-back 3-win seasons in his first two years, but through 9 games this season, Elliot has put up an improved (5-4) mark, pushing his overall record at Virginia to 11-20.
While this year’s record may not be all that impressive, it's undoubtedly the best season under
Coach Elliot so far. They started off strong with a 4-1 record until they hit a 3-game losing streak, falling to Louisville, then No. 10 Clemson, and UNC to drop back to (4-4). Thankfully, they stopped the skid last week with their biggest win of the season over then No. 18 Pitt, a 24-19 road win as a 7.5-point underdog. The upset put them in a very interesting position with No. 8 Notre Dame this week, No. 14 SMU at home next week, and a road game against Virginia Tech to close the season. If the Cavs can pull out a win from one of these final three games, they’d become bowl-eligible for the first time since 2021, and two wins would give them their first winning record since 2019.
Adding to the stakes of this game, Notre Dame will face their former 4-year WR/RB/PR Chris Tyree for the first time since his departure for Virginia. Tyree has had a tough go so far at Virginia, struggling with groin and ab injuries that have kept him out of all but six games this season. Because of his limited playtime, Tyree has only caught 22 passes for 124 yards and has yet to find the endzone through the air, on the ground, or special teams. Although Virginia isn’t one of the best teams the Irish have faced this year, their current momentum
and what they’re playing for makes them a different kind of animal. Virginia is motivated, Chris Tyree is motivated in his return to South Bend, and you better believe coach Elliot is motivated to end this season on a high note. The Cavs aren’t just looking to play spoiler - like the Irish, they’re playing for a chance at postseason action.
UVA Injury Report
● S Antonio Clary - Knee - Out
● WR Trell Harris - Knee - Out
● DT Jason Hammond - Shoulder - Out
● LB James Jackson - Foot - Questionable
● RB Jack Griese - Foot - Questionable
Notre Dame:
The Irish continued their dominance last week, crushing the shell-shocked Florida State Seminoles 52-3 and covering the 26-point spread. Riley Leonard threw for 215 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 70 yards and 2 more scores on the ground. Jadarian Price and Jeremiyah Love each rushed for a touchdown of their own, along with a Steve Angeli passing score during garbage time.
The Irish defense was stifling, holding the Seminoles to a shocking 208 total yards for the day,
including a 79-yard pick-6 from Luke Talich. It gave them a seventh straight win and was their third 40+ point win of the season. Notre Dame has outscored its last four opponents 183-37 and enters week 12 scoring 38.3 points per game. The Irish moved up two spots to No. 8 in the rankings thanks to losses from UGA and Miami and secured the 9th-seed in the newest CFP bracket release. Their projected matchup as of right now would be on the road against the 8th-seed Tennessee Volunteers, with the winner advancing to face the No. 1 seed, currently the Oregon Ducks.
Notre Dame Injury Report
● DL Howard Cross III - Left Ankle - Out
● RB Devynn Ford - Right Groin - Questionable
● Edge Loghan Thomas - Right Hamstring - Questionable (Probable)
● CB/PR Max Hurleman - Left Hamstring - Questionable (Probable)
The Matchup
Notre Dame opens this game as a more than a 3 touchdown favorite over Virginia, just a bit less than what they were favored by going into the Florida State game. Vegas doesn’t think one will be all that close, and they’re thinking it won’t be quite as explosive as Notre Dame’s wins over Purdue, Stanford, Navy, and Florida State, predicting the final tally to stay under 51 points. With that said, the Irish have gone 5-0 against the spread over the last 5 games, and at the 38.3 PPG clip they’ve been playing at, the only way this stays under the +/- is if the Cavs score almost no points.
UVA is 5-1 against the spread over the last 6 games, and they’re scoring 26.0 points per game while the Irish hold opponents to 11.1. Betting the over and the Irish to cover the spread is pretty reasonable.
Notre Dame's Defense vs. UVA's Offense
Virginia was admittedly an inexperienced group last year, but they’ve relied so far on a ridiculously high 76% return in production, the 5th highest in the country, to keep themselves competitive against the toughest schedule in the ACC. The offense is led by QB Anthony Colandrea, who threw for less than 2,000 yards, 13 TDs, and 9 INTs in 2023. Through 9 games in 2024, he’s only managed about the same, tossing 1,948 yards, 12 TDs, and 9 INTs, with 4 multi-interception games thus far. Colandrea isn’t quite a “dual-threat” QB - but he is mobile. When his passing game struggles, he can keep the opposing defense honest with his feet, recording double-digit carries in 6/9 games this year for 259 yards and 2 scores. On the negative side, Colandrea isn’t particularly trustworthy holding the ball and has fumbled 5 times in nine games. Virginia’s running back room also left much to be desired, only amassing 689 yards between a 3-back split, and their WR room lost its best option
from 2023, Malik Washington, to the NFL draft. Thankfully, they returned their No. 2 wideout, Malachi Fields, and brought in Notre Dame transfer Chris Tyree. Unfortunately, Tyree has struggled to stay on the field due to injuries, but Fields has stayed prolific, posting 45 catches for 665 yards and 4 touchdowns. He’s the top target this year and leads the team in all three categories.
Statistically, Virginia’s offense has been pretty middle of the pack so far, posting an 83rd-ranked 26.0 points per game. They don’t have the elite running game the Irish do, and they throw the ball about as effectively, leaving them relatively ineffective on both sides of the ball yet not completely deficient in one specific area. Compounding Virginia’s issues is an offensive line that's struggled all year. They’ve allowed the 6th most sacks in the country (31) and have been consistently shuffling their lineup due to injuries. This will be the primary method of attack for an Irish defense that is currently generating the 18th most sacks in the country, with 2.89 per game. Notre Dame’s elite defense also ranks top-3 in PPG allowed (11.1), passing yards allowed (148.6), passing efficiency defense (91.54), turnover margin per game (1.33), and defensive touchdowns (four). Enough said. The Cavs aren't incapable of surprising the Irish or catching them off-guard if they mail it in as they did against NIU, but if Al Golden’s group plays even half as well as they have the last few weeks, there’s no
reason they get beat by the Cav’s offense.
Advantage: Strong Notre Dame
UVA Offense - Players to Watch
Notre Dame's Offense vs. UVA's Defense
Mike Denbrock’s 2024 offense has been on a season-long arc. The Irish run game, largely led by Riley Leonard, has been stellar all year, but a surprisingly slow start for the passing game had many concerned. Since the NIU loss in week 2, the passing game has made incremental progress from game to game and has transformed itself from a liability to a consistent contribution to the offense.
The offense’s goal has not changed - run the ball and establish the short and intermediate passing game early. If that doesn't work, they’ve learned how to win without it. That's not necessarily ideal for a “contending” team, but against UVA, it’s not an insurmountable challenge. Thankfully, Leonard’s passing hasn’t regressed since the NIU game, tossing 1,575 yards, 9 TDs, and only a single interception over the last 7 games. Objectively, that's not an incredibly impressive showing, but when combined with 609 rushing yards and 13 ground scores, Leonard’s been nearly unstoppable.
Notre Dame’s ground game alone can grind down this below-average Virginia defense, opening things up for Leonard through the air. They don’t have to rely on Leonard’s arm to win, but the more we see him push his limits in the passing game, the more encouraging it is for a possible postseason run. The Irish have the edge here, but because we’ve seen them both struggle and go one-dimensional before, a failure on this side of the ball can’t be ruled out completely. The story for the 2024 Irish has been a defense that will win you games with an offense that could possibly lose it for you. Regardless, the Irish offense should continue their progress.
Advantage: Leaning Notre Dame
UVA Defense - Player to Watch\
Prediction
Notre Dame once again holds the edge on both offense and defense, and the talent gap here is more extreme than what they faced against FSU last week. Even if the Irish come out slow or struggle through the air, there’s no reason they can’t outlast a clearly outmatched Cavs defense. The 3-man Irish ground attack alone is enough to keep the Irish offense moving. As for Virginia’s offense, they’ll struggle both on the ground and through the air against Notre Dame’s elite defense. Their pressure up front and dominant run defense will likely force the Cavs into relying on the passing game, and a less-than-perfect Colandrea would be at the mercy of the Irish secondary. There’s no clear path to victory for the Cavs, so look for them to be tricky and find ways to put the ball in a motivated Chris Tyree’s hands.
With their CFP hopes on the line, the Irish will be motivated to prevent a second letdown loss at home and are ferociously pursuing a 1st round playoff host seed (seeds 5, 6, 7, 8). In the weeks following the NIU loss, the Irish have slowly earned back the fan’s trust and should continue their recent dominance. Ultimately, the talent and coaching gap here will be pretty evident from the jump, and when combined with home-field advantage and an Irish team in full CFP stride, this game shouldn’t be close. Expect the Irish to win this one by double digits and notch their 9th win of the season.
Look for:
● Notre Dame’s defense - records 2+ interceptions
● Notre Dame’s defense - records 4+ sacks
● Notre Dame’s defense - holds former Irish WR Chris Tyree to 50 all-purpose yards or less
● Mitchell Evans - records a season-high in catches (5+) and yards (28+)
● Jeremiyah Love - records 2 rushing touchdowns for only the 2nd time this year
WIN (9-1)
ND: 45-13 :UVA
Click to Join! - https://www.facebook.com/groups/legionoftheleprechaun
Comments