One of the greatest intersectional rivalries in college football history renews this Saturday, as the Notre Dame Fighting Irish make their biannual trip to Los Angeles to face off with longtime arch rival USC. The series first began in 1926, and has been played every year since with the exception of World War II and the COVID-19 season in 2020. This will be the 95th matchup in the series, and the Irish currently hold the edge 51-38-5.
Photo by The Irish Tribune
The winner will receive the hallowed “Jeweled Shillelagh” trophy, and will have the chance to add an emerald for an Irish win or a ruby for a Trojan one. Like Florida State, USC has had a disappointing outing in 2024, and expectations for this season finale matchup were much higher prior to the start of the season. Even then, the edition of the rivalry still has major implications for Notre Dame’s CFP hopes, and the Trojans have a chance to redeem themselves and keep their coach off the hot seat.
These two schools have one of the most decorated rivalries in all of college football. Between the two programs, they have 22 National Titles, 15 Heisman winners, 193 All Time All Americans, 83 College Football Hall of Fame Inductees, and 1,048 NFL Draft picks. Although this season’s matchup doesn’t have its usual primetime billing, the rivalry lives on as one of the most significant traditions from the sport’s storied past.
Here’s everything you need to know ahead of Saturday’s game.
USC
After 5 years at Oklahoma and a stellar 55–10 record, Lincoln Riley jumped ship for USC in 2022 where he’d lead the Trojans to an 11-3 record, including a 38-27 win over first year Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman, and a Heisman Trophy for QB Caleb Williams.
Unfortunately, it ended with a heartbreaking 1-point loss in the Cotton Bowl to No. 16 Tulane, and the Trojans finished their season at No. 12 in the polls. 2023 held even more promise for Riley and his Trojan squad, but their doom was a dismal defensive unit so bad their DC Alex Grinch was let go midseason after only 9 games and in only his 2nd year with the program. Notre Dame proceeded to spoil what was supposed to be USC’s CFP campaign in 2023, ending the Trojans’ 6-game win streak with a 48-20 thumping. Even with the 2nd highest-scoring offense, USC was overwhelmed by Notre Dame’s defensive attack, surrendering 6 sacks on Caleb Williams along with 5 turnovers on the day. The loss sent USC on a 2-4 spiral in their final stretch to finish the season 8-5 and unranked. The ugly season finished with a bright spot, as former backup QB Miller Moss balled out in USC’s Holiday Bowl matchup with Louisville, tossing 372 yards and six touchdowns in the wake of Caleb Williams’ opt out.
Riley and the Trojans started the 2024 season strong, knocking off former Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly and the No. 13 LSU Tigers in the season opener. After pummeling Utah State 48-0, USC traveled to Ann Arbor to face the defending National Champion Michigan Wolverines, but fell 24-27 for their first loss of the season. They bounced back the following week against Wisconsin, but a road trip loss to Minnesota started a 3-game losing streak that changed the entire outlook of their season. The Trojans lost 17-24 to the Golden Gophers, 30-33 against No. 4 Penn State, and 28-29 on the road at Maryland, dropping them to a surprising 3-4 record. Riley and Miller Moss seemed to get things back on track the following week against Rutgers, but another road loss against unranked Washington dropped USC to 4-5 and saw Moss benched in favor of UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava. Since the QB swap, the Trojans have notched back to back wins against Nebraska, 28-20 and at UCLA 19-13 to get themselves above .500 for the first time since week 6.
6-5 is a pretty rough record any way you slice it, but the closer you look at USC’s season schedule, the more they register as a legitimate threat. Each of their 5 losses have come by a single score, by a combined difference of only 19 points. Even when they’ve lost, it's been close, and they’re riding a 3-1 record over their last 4 matchups. Their UCLA road win last week made them bowl eligible and gave them something else to play for outside of spoiling Notre Dame’s playoff run. Lincoln Riley may be in the midst of his worst season in LA thus far, but he’s still one of the best offensive schemers in the country and has arguably the most talented roster the Irish have seen since A&M. USC won’t need to play a perfect game to beat this Notre Dame team, but they’ll have to show us all a side of themselves we haven’t seen up to this point. Can Lincoln Riley lead the Trojans over their “one-score loss” hump and finally seal the deal in a close one? Or will Notre Dame become just another possible win USC let's slip away once again?
USC Injury Report
● OL Micah Banuelos - Undisclosed Injury (11/24) - Questionable
● DE Solomon Tuliaupupu - Undisclosed Injury (11/24) - Questionable
Notre Dame
Notre Dame destroyed the Army Black Knights last week. The defense played their usual brand of ball and held Army to a single 1st half score and nothing again until the final minute of the game when 2nd and 3rd stringers had already subbed in and the game was well out of hand. The Irish won the turnover margin yet again, this time with a single fumble recovery and a clean slate on offense. Riley Leonard was an efficient 10/13 for 148 yards and 2 scores through the air, but the real fireworks came from the backfield. RB Jeremiyah Love exploded for 136 and 2 touchdowns on only 7 carries, along with a single 6-yard catch that he took to the house for his 3rd visit of the day. The win extended Notre Dame’s win streak to 9 straight, and gave the Irish their 4th win over a top-25 opponent of the season (TAMU, Louisville, Navy).
Although impressive, the win wasn’t perfect, and the Irish still have two areas in need of
improvement that were made clearer against Army. First being the series where the Irish offense had a 1st & goal at Army’s 5 and turned the ball over on 4th down after 4 consecutive rushes. While it's not the end of the world, an offense that specializes in the run failing like that against an AAC opponent is something that just can't happen, not even once. The second area of concern is once again the kicking game, as Mitch Jeter had yet another field goal blocked. Thankfully, the Irish haven’t been in a position to NEED the kicking game to be consistent and put points on the board, but its recent struggles and Jeter’s nagging injury will be a serious liability if the USC game comes down to a kick.
The 7 touchdowns against the Black Knights put the Irish up 134-31 over opponents in November alone and moved them up to No. 5 in the CFP rankings. As of right now, the Irish would have the 7th seed in the official CFP bracket, and would face the current 10th seed SMU. The winner of that projected game would go on to face the No. 2 seed, currently the Texas Longhorns.
Notre Dame Injury Report
● DL Howard Cross III - Left Ankle (11/16) - Questionable
● QB CJ Carr - Elbow (11/16) - Questionable
● LB Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa - Knee (11/25) - Out
● WR KK Smith - Collarbone (11/25) - Out
● LB Bodie Kahoun - Right Leg (11/25) - Out
The Matchup
Notre Dame's Defense vs. USC's Offense
This is yet another strength v. strength game for the Irish. Notre Dame’s defensive unit is playing elite level ball, and their ability to control and stifle opponents’ production has been the leading force behind Notre Dame’s success. The only time the Irish lost this season was due to the offense’s lack of success, not the defense’s inability to keep opponents from scoring. In that game, NIU only scored a single touchdown, and the Irish D held them to 3 field goals for the rest of the game.
USC on the other hand is led by Lincoln Riley’s offensive genius and a prolific passing game. QB Miller Moss had impressive numbers through the air, but his record as the starter was too much of a detractor to keep him in the starting spot. Enter Maiava. The redshirt Sophomore transfer from UNLV has changed the Trojans’ fortunes with back to back wins after a 4-5 start from Moss, and has given USC a spark to a productive offense struggling to step up when it counts. When looking at the numbers here, it doesn't bode well for the Trojans. The Irish are elite in every category except for their 48th rank in rush YPG allowed, partly due to playing 3 option-oriented teams (Georgia Tech, Navy, Army) but also due to an inability to move the ball against Notre Dame’s oppressive secondary. Notre Dame’s secondary will be tested this week, by the best aerial attack they’ve seen since Louisville, but the game changer may lie on the ground. If the Trojans can beat Notre Dame there, they may have a better shot at moving the ball than through the air, but ultimately, they’re outmatched here. If the Irish can force Maiava to pass because of an inability to move it on the ground, Notre Dame should have no problems winning the turnover margin and forcing the Trojans off the field.
Advantage: Soft Notre Dame
Notre Dame's Offense vs. USC's Defense
Weakness v. weakness. This matchup will likely be where the game is won or lost, as the playing field here is noticeably more even. Notre Dame has successfully progressed and improved their aerial attack each week since the NIU loss, but it went from anemic to average. The Irish offense is in the bottom half of passing production across the nation, and have only recently begun to really toss the ball around. In looking at the numbers, Notre Dame’s primary strength on offense is far and away their rushing attack, and subsequently their ability to score while doing so. Much of that is due to Riley Leonard’s dual threat ability, and it’ll come down to who USC can stop, Leonard or Love. They likely won’t be able to stop both of them, at least not all game long, and in a head-to-head matchup with two pretty average groups, Notre Dame’s success on the ground is the only elite number between the two.
Like the head-to-head between Notrre Dame’s defense and USC’s offense, this matchup comes down to one thing: If Notre Dame is running the ball without much struggle, it's going to be a long day. So, if USC has any chance of messing with Mike Denbrock’s recent production, it’ll be by forcing Leonard to pass. That’s not to say it's a foolproof blueprint to victory - if Leonard is hitting his guys, Notre Dame could take this easily, but if Leonard is forced to pass and begins to struggle, USC’s defense may be able to make an unexpected difference.
Yes, that's a lot of “ifs” but USC’s defense and Notre Dame’s offense aren’t leagues apart. If the Irish offense of late decides to mail this one in or fail to meet the moment, they may fall behind early and be forced to play catchup. With all that said, it would be a genuine surprise to see this offense flounder now, and if it's going to happen, it’ll be apparent from the jump. While this is USC’s best path to victory, it's unlikely to happen. The Irish ground game and Leonard’s legs are just too much to count out, and chances are Notre Dame won't be “forced” to do anything they don’t want to.
Advantage: Soft Notre Dame
Prediction
Up to this point, Notre Dame has rolled over their less-than-impressive competition with little issue, but USC poses a different kind of threat. While this year’s Trojans aren’t necessarily the prototypical “spoiler” team, the sheer level of talent on this team and the intensity of this storied rivalry, combined with what's technically only Notre Dame’s 3rd true road win of the season makes this a perfect storm of intangibles that could very likely result in a massive upset win. Unlike so many of Notre Dame’s other opponents this season, the Trojans aren’t batting out of their league in this game, and they don't have to be flawless to steal it.
The outcome of this one will come down to what Notre Dame does - or doesn't - do. This is the steepest mental test the Irish have encountered since the great NIU catastrophe of 2024.
It's the first time since then people are giving Freeman and his squad their flowers, and speaking of their future before the work is done. We saw what happened last time that happened, how will the Irish respond this time? You better believe Lincoln Riley is brewing up something special for Freeman, and being back on top only means everyone is waiting for you to fall. This should be somewhat competitive in the first half, but the Irish will find a way to separate after halftime and come away with a tough-fought win by a respectable but not necessarily commanding margin.
Look for:
● Notre Dame’s defense - forces 2+ interceptions
● Notre Dame’s defense - holds RB Woody Marks under 100 yards rushing
● Jeremiyah Love - records 150+ rushing yards for the 1st time this year
● Riley Leonard - records 250+ passing yards for the 1st time this year
● Mitch Jeter goes 1/1 on field goal attempts
WIN (11-1)
ND: 38-13 :USC
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Congratulations on making it to the college football playoffs! Enjoy the moment while it lasts because you’ve got Indiana next—and if, by some miracle, you make it past them, good luck against Georgia. That team is a powerhouse, and let’s face it, Notre Dame isn’t built to compete at that level. Honestly, ND barely feels like it belongs in the playoffs; it’s hard to imagine them doing anything but crashing out in the first round like usual.