The Stanford Cardinal travel 2,200+ miles to South Bend, Indiana this weekend to face the now No. 11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the 37th battle for the “Legends Trophy.” Notre Dame is looking for its 4th straight win this season, along with the chance to notch the program’s 5th win in the last 6 matchups with Stanford. Despite it being October in South Bend, the Irish won’t benefit from their cold-weather advantage this time around, as conditions are projected to be at a nearly perfect 68º, sunny, and clear.
Photo via Notre Dame Athletics
Stanford:
Like several teams on Notre Dame’s 2024 schedule, Stanford is in the midst of their own rebuild. David Shaw led the Cardinal to success from 2011-2018 until the program hit a rough patch in 2019. After back-to-back 4-win seasons followed by back-to-back 3-win seasons, Stanford and Shaw parted ways, and current head coach Troy Taylor assumed the top spot in 2023. Despite the coaching change, rebuilds take time, and Taylor went 3-9 in his first season, including a 23-56 loss at home to Freeman and the Irish.
2024 has been a mixed bag thus far for Taylor and the Cardinal. They started the season with a tough but confidence-building 27-34 loss against TCU followed by a solid 41-7 drubbing of Cal Poly at home. They hit their highpoint against Syracuse, kicking off their freshly minted ACC career with a 26-24 upset win on the road before the wheels came off. Stanford then traveled to No. 17 Clemson where they were beaten handily 14-40 before losing their 2nd straight game, this time at home against unranked Virginia Tech, 7-31. Stanford was outscored 71-21 in these two games, and dropped to 13th out of 17 teams in the ACC. If you remove Stanford’s dominant win over Cal Poly, their struggles are even more evident. Outside that game, the Cardinal passing attack hasn’t eclipsed 61% in passing accuracy or more than 180 yards once, along with 7 interceptions through only 5 games. While much of their production and threat comes on the ground, that success has been dwindling as of late. Stanford has failed to rush for a single touchdown in any of their last 3 games, forcing them to throw the ball more than they’d typically like.
The Cardinal featured a run-first offense with 2 junior dual-threat QBs, Ashton Daniels and Justin Lamson, who both led the team in rushing last season. Daniels leads the offense on the ground once again in 2024, posting team highs of 50 carries and 250 yards, while backup QB Justin Lamson is responsible for the only 2 rushing touchdowns Stanford has scored all year. Taylor’s squad was tied for the 7th most returning production for 2024, totaling 17 players, including one of the most elite receiving targets in the nation, Elic Ayomanor. Elic returns after a 1,000+ yard - 6 TD season in 2023, and has already put up 3 touchdowns for 317 yards in 2024. Although Stanford leans heavily in favor of their run game, Ayomanor has enough talent to take advantage of any mistake and will be the biggest threat to Notre Dame’s secondary.
Stanford’s defense has given up roughly 400 yards in each of their games against power-4 opponents, but managed to hold Syracuse to only 26 yards on the ground, flexing their primary strength on the D-line. Interestingly, the only teams that have beaten Stanford this year have rushed the ball at least 30 times, and it just so happens that the only game Notre Dame has lost this season (NIU - incase you forgot) was the only time they’ve rushed less than 30 times (28). If the Irish just keep the ball on the ground, it seems that persistence can turn Stanford’s biggest defensive strength into a liability.
One of the biggest criticisms of Notre Dame’s offense has been their one-dimensional identity, woefully underperforming through the air but seemingly over-performing on the ground with a mobile QB. Stanford is in a pretty similar situation offensively, posing little to no threat through the air while relying on a rushing attack led by a dual threat QB. Unfortunately, they’re doing so with less overall talent than the Irish, and to less success. The dual-threat has been solid, but is too heavily relied upon instead of complimenting a true rushing threat, making their one dimensional offense even more narrow in scope than Notre Dame’s. Ashton Daniels was out against Virginia Tech after suffering an injury against Clemson, but is expected to be back in time for the trip to South Bend. He’s crucial to any shot Stanford has at staying competitive, much less posing a legitimate threat to steal the game.
Notre Dame:
The Irish are in a strange spot as they enter this one. Freeman led his team to a comfortable win over the Cardinal in 2023, but Irish fans haven't forgotten the shocking 14-16 home loss to Stanford in Freeman’s first season as head coach. Adding to that, expectations for the program’s 2024 season have not been met across the board, and there's a level of general uneasiness within the fanbase. Both teams enter this matchup in very different positions, and they each have a very different reason for needing this win. Stanford is looking to prevent a slide and avoid their 3rd straight loss, while the Irish can no longer afford to drop a game or fumble the favorable hand they now have in the wake of week 6’s chaos.
Notre Dame’s game with Louisville was a much needed win over a ranked opponent, but it was a bit of a mixed bag. The first half was eventful, with the Irish scoring 24 of their 31 total points, but the second half was anemic. The Irish offense only mustered a single scoring drive, coming in the 4th quarter, and gave the Cardinals a chance to steal the game after failing to put it completely out of reach.
There’s really only two avenues for Notre Dame to lose this one.
Complacency
Depletion
We’ve already seen the Irish get over-confident, overlook a less talented team, and get complacent, so completely ruling out another let-down loss is unfortunately, just not possible anymore. Despite the fireworks from week 6, Notre Dame should be able to avoid following in those footsteps, as they were one of the first top-10 teams in the country to already give up that “let down” game. There’s a possibility the Irish stumble again, but the chances of it happening against anyone other than USC in the season finale seems slim. This team’s real Achilles Heel is depletion. The injury bug has bitten the Irish incredibly hard thus far, and we’re only on the cusp of the season’s halfway point. As of right now, the Irish have 12 players out for the season, 4 of which were starters when they went down.
As for Notre Dame’s current injuries heading into the Stanford game, there’s some slightly better news:
Injuries Heading Into Stanford
Sophomore OL Sam Pendleton
Concussion - Cleared to Play V. Stanford
Hurt V. Louisville
Missed Part of Louisville Game
Junior DL Joshua Burnham
Left Ankle - Probable V. Stanford
Hurt V. NIU
Missed Purdue and Miami OH
Sophomore WR Jordan Faison
Ankle - Probable for Stanford
Hurt V. TAMU - Reinjured V. Louisville
Missed NIU and Purdue
Sophomore CB Christian Gray
Right Shoulder - Probable V. Stanford
Hurt V. Miami OH
Missed Louisville in Gametime Decision
Sophomore TE Cooper Flanagan
Left Ankle Sprain - Questionable V. Stanford
Hurt V. Miami OH
Missed Louisville
Senior DL Gabriel Rubio
Left Foot - Questionable V. Stanford
Hurt in Preseason Camp
Hasn’t Played Yet in 2024 - Will likely make an appearance before the end of the regular
season
Junior OL Billy Schrauth
Right Ankle - Questionable V. Stanford
Hurt V. Purdue
Missed Miami OH and Louisville
Freshman Safety Tae Johnson
Left Foot - Out V. Stanford
Hurt in Preseason Camp
Hasn’t Played Yet in 2024 - Will likely make an appearance before the end of the regular season
The Irish will have to rely on a bevy of back-ups and shared time if they’re going to survive all the season ending injuries, and must get the rest of these players with a realistic chance to return as soon as possible. The Irish are now in a situation where they cant afford for a single player to get injured at multiple positions. IF Freeman and his squad drop this game, it likely won't be due to complacency, but instead because of compounding injuries and inexperienced starters.
Notre Dame’s defensive key to dominating this game will be getting to get to the QB. Stanford’s offensive line has given up 15 sacks in their first 5 games, and Notre Dame’s defense is the best they’ve seen yet. If the Irish can apply pressure, they can neutralize Stanford’s QB run threat, and force the Cardinal to pass, which they’re just plainly not good at. This then forces Ayomanor to have to out-talent the likes of Benjamin Morrison and Xavier Watts, and Al Golden will take that matchup every time.
On offense, Denbrock will have to answer the same question that’s been asked of them all season. Will they hammer away on the ground to break Stanford’s back, or will they go the riskier route and finally outperform their meager success through the air and let Leonard really toss it around. Despite Leonard progressively getting better in the passing game, each time the Irish faced this situation, they’ve turned to their ground attack to lead the way to a win.
Prediction:
Once again, the stakes for this game are much bigger than its billing. A second loss of any
kind would likely kill Notre Dame’s CFP hopes, especially to another unranked opponent. The Irish are favored across the board in this one, and Vegas gives them a 90+% chance of winning, so barring another NIU cataclysm, the Irish should once again take care of business. That doesn't mean it’ll be all rainbows and butterflies like Purdue, but things should be a bit cleaner and a bit easier than the Louisville matchup. Having a BYE week and extra time to recover and repair typically provides a weighted advantage, but with that said, 2024 has been a legitimate crapshoot and Notre Dame has already given us the most shocking upset loss in at least the last 30 years. It;s entirely possible we see a sluggish start on offense for the Irish, but they’ll find a way to separate themselves in the second half. Regardless of aesthetics or what gets checked off our collective fan “wish lists,” this should be a double-digit win and God-willing, one that Irish fans don’t have to sweat out.
Look for:
Notre Dame's defense to record two interceptions
Notre Dame's defense to score a touchdown
Notre Dame's defense to record three sacks
Riley Leonard to throw for over 200 yards and rush for over 70 yards
Mitchell Evans to grab his first touchdown reception
Kris Mitchell to catch 5+ passes
Win: (5-1)
ND: 41 - 13 :STAN
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