It may be Miami, but the 2025 Orange Bowl will host a Snow Bowl reunion between the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame and the Penn State Nittany Lions.
Photo by The Irish Tribune
Although the series dates back to 1913, this is only their 20th meeting and their second matchup in the postseason. They faced off four times between 1913 and 1928 before taking a nearly 50-year hiatus. That break ended when Dan Devine and the Fighting Irish beat Joe Paterno and the Nittany Lions 20-9. Following that postseason game, the programs signed a 12-year home-and-home agreement that began in 1981.
During this stretch, 5/12 games were decided by a single score, and the series was cemented as a modern rivalry that the broader college football audience grew to anticipate. While several excellent games were played, one stands out above the rest.
It was a below-freezing November day in South Bend, with light flurries coming down and a full-on storm threatening. The Irish limped into the game, with QB Rick Mirer sick with a stomach bug and Jerome Bettis with a tweaked ankle. Penn State struck first, rushing for a TD, but had their extra point blocked, earning them only 6 points for their efforts. The Irish offense struggled to get the ball in the end zone, settling for 3 points each quarter and turning the ball over twice. PSU’s QB Kerry Collins put the Nittany Lions up 16-9 with 4:25 left in the 4th. A 4th FG wouldn’t help the struggling Irish offense, and a touchdown would only tie the score at 16: the Irish would need to score their first touchdown of the day and follow it with a 2-point conversion to win.
After a 4-minute 61-yard drive, the Irish sat on the Penn State 3-yard line. It all came down to this - on 4th down with only 25 seconds left, down 7, Rick Mirer tossed a floater over just over the line to Bettis for a touchdown, bringing the Irish within 1. Penn State knew what was coming, and Holtz lined his offense up for a 2-point conversion. As Mirer dropped back, his pocket began collapsing under the pressure, forcing him to scramble outside. While being chased by two defenders, nothing appeared open, yet he tossed a prayer off his back foot, holding the game’s fate in his hands. The ball sailed to the back corner of an empty end zone, only to be met at the last second by a diving Reggie Brooks, who reeled it in to put the Irish up 17-16 and steal the game. The miraculous come-from-behind win would go down in Notre Dame history and be dubbed the “Snow Bowl.”
After more than a decade of yearly clashes, the series took another hiatus that lasted until 2006, when a 2-game home-and-home agreement was scheduled. The Irish stole the 2006 game at Beaver Stadium, 41-17, before the Nittany Lions won 31-10 at Notre Dame Stadium in 2007. Since then, the two haven't met in either the regular season or postseason and the series sits deadlocked with a 9-9-1 tie. The winner of this matchup has a chance to take the series lead and move one step closer to the ultimate goal - a National Championship.
Both teams have fielded similar criticism over the last 20 years:
"Oh, they never play anybody,"
"They haven't won a Title since the '80s,"
"They're not a powerhouse anymore"
but here we stand - with both Notre Dame and Penn State on the precipice of greatness, one win away from a shot to restore their program to its former glory and silence the doubters.
Which team wins the "Miami Snow Bowl," and which falls short of the big dance?
Let's take a look. Here’s everything you need to know ahead of Thursday's game.
Penn State
James Franklin began his head coaching career at Vanderbilt, where he went (24-15) over three seasons before taking the Penn State job in 2014. After back-to-back (7-6) seasons, Franklin and the Nittany Lions broke through in 2016 with an impressive 11-3 record and a trip to the Rose Bowl. For the next 3 years, Franklin led PSU to (11-2), (9-4), and (11-2) seasons, winning two of three major bowl appearances. The team's success took a hit in 2020 and 2021, going (4-5) and (7-6), respectively, before rebounding. After an (11-2) record and a win in the Rose Bowl, the 2022 Nittany Lions finished at No. 7 in end-of-season polls, tying Franklin's highest final ranking at Penn State so far. 2023 wasn't quite as successful, but PSU finished (10-3) and a Peach Bowl appearance. Franklin began the 2024 season with a combined (88-39) record over 10 seasons in College Park.
Penn State kicked off the 2024 season with a solid road win over West Virginia, but responded the following week with a less-than-impressive home opener, scraping by Bowling Green 34-27. After a BYE week, the Lions responded with an expected yet confident 56-0 win over the MAC's Kent State.
They went on to beat No. 19 Illinois and UCLA by two scores each before facing Lincoln Riley and unranked USC. This was the first true scare of the year, but Penn State snuck away with a (33-30) OT road win despite ranking No. 4. After beating Wisconsin on the road, No. 3 Penn State welcomed notorious rival No. 4 Ohio State to Beaver Stadium. It was a tightly contested game.
It was a close, defensive battle, with only three total touchdowns scored and only field goals exchanged in the 2nd half. Ultimately, the Buckeyes were able to stifle any Nittany Lion comeback and took the game 20-13. It was Penn State's first loss of the season, but it showed how competitive they could be against an elite opponent despite their close calls against unranked teams. PSU rallied with big wins over Washington and Purdue before hitting the road for Minnesota. Once again, the No. 4 Lions struggled against an unranked opponent and narrowly avoided the upset, 26-25.
By this point, Penn State was 10-1, but lost their premiere matchup with OSU and nearly lost three one-score games against unranked opponents. Their 44-7 win over a mediocre Maryland team the following week did little to quiet critics who thought the Nittany Lions were overrated, but the following week provided an opportunity. Finishing the regular season with 4 straight wins earned PSU a BIG 10 Title game against then No. 1 Oregon. Despite a 13-point 4th quarter, the Ducks were able to outlast Penn State and secure the Title and an undefeated season. The loss was disappointing, but inspired far more confidence in Franklin's team with an impressive offensive performance, exceeding their showing against OSU. They ended the year (11-2), the first team of Franklin's tenure to record 11 wins in the regular season, and earned the 6th seed in the bracket, just above 7th seed Notre Dame.
They drew ACC runner-up SMU in round 1 of the playoff and easily dispatched them 38-10, thanks to an overwhelming defensive performance. They racked up 3 interceptions, 2 of which were returned for defensive touchdowns, along with nearly 200 yards on the ground between Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton.
Penn State then went on the road to face Mountain West Champion Boise State in the quarter-finals. Like the SMU matchup, the talent difference was palpable. The Nittany Lions stifled Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty and the Broncos offense, holding him to 3.5 YPC and 0 touchdowns while stealing 3 interceptions and a fumble. Penn State's offense leaned on their ground game once again, with RB Kaytron Allen going for 137 yards and QB Drew Allar tossing 3 touchdowns.
Penn State Injury Report
OT - Anthony Donkoh - Knee - Out
DE - Abdul Carter - Arm - Gametime Decision
DE - Dani Dennis-Sutton - Questionable
CB - AJ Harris - Questionable
S - KJ Winston - Questionable
RB - Cam Wallace - Lower Body - Questionable
Prior to the start of the playoff, James Franklin was still fielding criticism for failing to win "the big game" or get his squad deep into the postseason. However, his team's performance against SMU and Boise State seemed to quiet those critics. Penn State's defense has led them to victory countless times, and when they haven't been able to keep opponents from scoring, the Nittany Lions offense has stepped up to keep them competitive.
Now, he faces arguably the biggest game of his career, and a win would surely earn him a level of appreciation in College Park not seen since Paterno.
Is this version of James Franklin's Nittany Lions legit? Or are they only a slightly improved version of what we've come to expect from Penn State? If their postseason performance has afforded them anything, it's the confidence that they belong here and have a genuine shot at winning this game.
Notre Dame
Marcus Freeman's Fighting Irish are coming off arguably the biggest win in modern Notre Dame history - a 23-10 battle with the SEC Champion Georgia Bulldogs.
It was a defensive battle from the start. Notre Dame's defense forced a fumble to stop a deep Georgia drive into Irish territory, and neither team scored in the first quarter. After giving up a huge chunk pass down the sideline, the Irish defense held Georgia to a field goal for the game's first points. The Irish answered with two field goals to take a narrow 6-3 lead with less than a minute left in the half. That's when things changed.
Instead of taking the conservative route and kneeling the ball, Kirby Smart elected to send his offense back out onto the field to try and score. First-time starter Gunner Stockton had been throwing the ball well, and the Bulldogs hoped to at least tie things up before giving the Irish the ball to start the 3rd quarter. On the first play of Georgia's drive, Stockton dropped back to throw but was blindsided by Notre Dame's RJ Oben, who chopped the ball out of his hands and onto the ground. The Irish recovered and immediately struck with a passing touchdown from Riley Leonard to Beaux Collins, stunning the Bulldogs and taking a 13-3 lead going into halftime.
On the opening kickoff of the 2nd half, Notre Dame's Jayden Harrison fielded the ball at the 2-yard line and began slowly cutting his way through Georgia's return team before breaking a tackle and finding a seam, bursting into the open and down the sideline. He ran 98 yards to the house, putting the Irish up 20-3 while driving a dagger into Georgia. In just 54 seconds, the Irish scored 17 points, extending a 6-3 lead to 20-3. Georgia finally scored a touchdown with about 9 minutes left in the 3rd, but the Irish added another field goal after forcing a turnover on downs on the 9-yard line.
The final backbreaker was a 4th & 1 on Notre Dame's own 19, where the Irish executed an 11-man personnel change, swapping the entire special teams unit with the offense before baiting the Bulldogs to jump offsides. The Irish proceeded to bleed the clock with multiple 3rd-down conversions until giving the ball back to Georgia. The Irish sealed the win with another turnover on downs, sacking Gunner Stockton at Georgia's 17.
Once again, the Irish beat an elite opponent in a dominant fashion while not even playing their best ball. Notre Dame's offense collected fewer total yards than Georgia while only throwing for 90 yards and 1 touchdown. They didn't score a single rushing touchdown between Leonard, Price, and Love and relied heavily on Mitch Jeter's 3/3 mark on field goals and a special teams touchdown.
Notre Dame Injury Report
DT - Rylie Mills - Knee - Out
TE - Cooper Flanagan - Achilles - Out
WR - KK Smith - Collarbone - Questionable
LB - Bodie Kahoun - Leg - Questionable
RB - Jeremiyah Love - Knee - Available
LB - Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa - Knee - Available
OL - Charles Jagusah - Pec - Available
RG - Rocco Spindler - Ankle - Available
It wasn't pretty and wasn't a blowout, but the Irish proved they can find a way to win against any caliber of team and can do so in various ways. Their defense proved it could absorb big chunk plays and a massive offensive line while still preventing scores and forcing turnovers. The offense proved it doesn't even need to throw the ball if its running backs aren't producing; it can just run with Leonard and beat you on special teams.
While the UGA game was the biggest win of Freeman's career, a win against Penn State and a trip to the National Title would be the biggest achievement since at least 2012. A win would further Notre Dame's argument that they are indeed "back."
The Matchup
Oddsmakers see the Orange Bowl much like the Sugar Bowl: Low scoring and close. The line opened in favor of Notre Dame (-1.0) and hit a high of (-2.0) before settling at (-1.5). It should be close, even if the line moves again before game time.
Oddsmakers predict yet another defensive battle with run-led offenses shedding clock. At 44.5, the implied score prediction is around 23-21.
The points total should be more accurate this time around. Penn State has a significantly more prolific offense than Georgia and should have an easier time getting points on the board. On the other side, Penn State’s defense isn’t quite as elite as Georgia’s, so points should come slightly easier for the Irish.
The Sugar Bowl was projected to be a razor-thin matchup but ended with a 13-point 23-10 win, despite hitting the under in points at 33. The Orange Bowl is unlikely to be so one-sided, and whichever way it goes, the score should be closer.
Notre Dame’s Defense vs Penn State’s Offense
Penn State’s offense is essentially a better version of Georgia’s Carson Beck-led team.
New offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has proven he’s an effective and creative play caller by carving out multiple avenues for scoring. The Nittany Lions have two 1,000+ yard running backs, a 1,000+ yard tight end, and a 3,000+ yard passer. Needless to say, they’re balanced, and they can do it either way. Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nic Singleton are both highly effective runners who mirror Notre Dame’s tandem of Love and Price. Together, they’ve recorded 24 touchdowns, 7 of which have come from Allar through the air, proving how vital they are in both the run and pass game.
Allar is the best QB the Irish defense has faced all year, even better than Indiana’s Curtis Rourke. His only flaw is a lack of mobility, but he’s still managed 6 rushing touchdowns on the year. With that said, he’s no Riley Leonard in the backfield. Allar had only been sacked 11 times through the first 13 games but has been taken down a whopping 7 times between SMU and Boise State. If the Irish can pressure Allar, they’re likely to take him down, but it’s imperative they find a way to contain PSU’s running backs. Notre Dame’s beaten-up defensive line managed 4 sacks of their own against an elite Georgia front-5 and will need to do the same to beat this Penn State offense.
Penn State’s Offense - Players to Watch
While Allar is an excellent passer, Penn State’s wide receivers are average at best. The Nittany Lions are last in the Power-4 for WR targets with 35%, even lower than Georgia’s more talented but heavily criticized wide receivers group.
What Penn State’s receiving core does have is an elite secret weapon - Tyler Warren. Warren has been Allar’s primary target all year, and that likely won’t stop against Notre Dame. If the receivers and backs aren’t getting separation, Tyler Warren will hit you big. For most teams, containing - or failing to contain Warren has been the key. He’s recorded a team-leading 8 touchdowns and 1,158 yards through the air, with a surprising 196 yards rushing and 4 touchdowns. When they need to, PSU will bring Warren in as a RB/FB to punch the ball in or over the line, and to surprising effect.
One of Notre Dame’s primary concerns will be finding a way to stop or limit Warren. Doing so will effectively shut down the majority of the passing game’s effectiveness and force the Nittany Lions to either run or get creative. Shutting Warren down isn’t mandatory for the Irish defense to win this battle, but it's the quickest way to dictate Penn State’s offense.
Additionally, the Irish are a ridiculous +18 in the turnover margin, and continuing to force turnovers will be very telling. The only game Notre Dame has not won the turnover battle in was their only loss, NIU.
This matchup could go either way, but the winner of this head-to-head will likely win the game. Notre Dame’s defense has been the numbers and sustained, consistent performance to get the edge here.
Advantage: Soft Notre Dame
Notre Dame’s Offense vs Penn State’s Defense
Notre Dame’s offense may not have looked statistically impressive, but they’ve shown time and time again that they can play whatever kind of game is needed to get a win.
We’ve seen Leonard toss more than 200 yards and 3 touchdowns twice this year, but can he do that against an objectively better defense like Penn State? We know he can win a game with 90 through the air and 80 on the ground, but we haven’t seen him go over 250 yards once this year. That's not to say Leonard can’t do it, we just haven’t seen him be forced to throw with the game on the line since NIU. Truth is, that Riley Leonard sure looked a lot different than Sugar Bowl MVP Riley Leonard.
Penn State’s Defense - Players to Watch
One of the biggest tells for this game will be what the Irish get out of their running attack. We know they can do it with just their QB alone, but can they get away with that again? Love and Price combined for a season-low of just 56 yards and 0 touchdowns against Georgia. While the Irish were able to absorb that abnormal performance, that may not be possible against the likes of Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton, who have a combined 17.5 sacks thus far. Carter, the reigning BIG 10 DPOY, is currently labeled a game-time decision after sustaining an arm injury against Boise State. Despite losing their best player, Penn State’s defense still managed 3 sacks and 4 turnovers, all while holding Jeanty to a season-low 104 yards and 0 touchdowns on a whopping 30 carries. They’ve also racked up an impressive 29 sacks, two better than Notre Dame’s 37.
Penn State’s defense has struggled at one thing all year - tackling. They’re 4th worst in the Power-4 with 17% missed tackles this year and have struggled with yards after contact. That's good news for the Irish, who lead the Power-4 in yards after contact with 4.2.
If the Irish can find a way to beat Penn State’s defensive line, be that through Leonard’s mobility or behind the legs of Love and Price, that will let them dictate the game, which includes opening things up through the air. If you’re betting on Penn State’s defense over Notre Dame’s offense, you’re betting that Love and Price are once again a non-factor. That just doesn’t seem likely.
This matchup has the most questions and unknowns of the game. If Notre Dame gets to play the game they want to play yet again, they should win. But if Penn State can force the Irish to pass instead of run, this is a toss-up.
Advantage: Even
Notre Dame’s Special Teams vs Penn State’s Special Teams
This special teams matchup is a unique situation. Neither team is a liability nor a clear favorite.
Notre Dame has been battling a tough regular season kicking performance, ranking dead last in the FBS for weeks. Thankfully, the postseason has been a different story, as kicker Mitch Jeter has been 5/5 on XPs and 5/6 on field goals - up from his 6/12 field goal mark throughout the regular season. Jeter finally looks healthy, and the UGA game was his first perfect performance since week 1 against TAMU. Thus, Notre Dame’s spot at 125th in FG percentage isn’t quite as alarming as it once was, and they’re trending up.
Penn State’s Ryan Barker won the kicking job outright after a shaky start from Sander Sahaydak and has been solid this year. His 14/17 field goal mark is middle of the road, but only 1/3 of Barker’s misses came in a close game - even then, it wouldn’t have changed the outcome. He’s reliable and will, without a doubt, be competitive with Jeter, but we haven’t seen Barker in a clutch situation since week 7 against USC. If Barker has a leg up, it's consistency, while Jeter’s edge is his recent performance. This is a wash.
Special Teams - Players to Watch
When looking at the punt game, the Irish hold the edge in net punt yards, but outside of that, nothing else stands out. Neither team has scored off a punt return while mirroring each other’s return average of just over 6.0 yards. The same goes for kick returns. The Irish rank significantly higher in average kickoff return than PSU, but the difference is less than 3 yards.
Neither team has a clear advantage here and neither is elite enough in any one area to earn an edge. Notre Dame is riding a hot streak in nearly all aspects of special teams, but their inconsistency up to this point keeps things even.
The main question for Notre Dame is, can Mitch Jeter remain consistent when called upon? And can the Irish continue finding a way to get the edge in both the kickoff and punt games?
For Penn State’s special teams, their success has more to do with Notre Dame. Can the Nittany Lions make the special teams game a zero-sum game? Can they at least prevent the Irish from another signature momentum-swinging play?
Advantage: Even
Prediction:
For the 3rd game in a row, the Irish are playing arguably the best team they’ve faced all year.
The same is true for Penn State, who lost their two biggest matchups before the playoffs and are looking for their biggest win over a blue chip program in years.
While Penn State’s defense isn’t quite as elite as Georgia’s, their offense is a significantly tougher challenge. The Sugar Bowl score may not have been close, but the game was, and it was decided by a few key plays. Penn State could be an even tougher matchup for Notre Dame, and this game will likely be higher scoring and closer at the end.
Notre Dame’s game plan comes down to this:
Establish an even-handed rushing attack between Leonard, Love, and Price
Get Leonard going in the passing game
Win the turnover battle
Shut down Tyler Warren
The Irish don't need to do anything different or change their approach. If they can achieve the goals above, they should win this game.
Freeman has transformed this program into a three-phase team that will find a way—any way—to beat you. It may not be pretty, and it may not be a high-scoring shootout, but the Irish have proven they can adapt their offense to edge out elite defenses and rely on their defense to keep opposing offenses quiet. Notre Dame isn’t any “one thing,” but they’re disciplined, well-coached, determined, and mean. This is old-school Notre Dame defense meets classic ground-and-pound running game.
If the Indiana game proved the Irish could win on a big stage, the Sugar Bowl win over Georgia was the “next step” everyone had been waiting for. Beating Penn State would confirm that Notre Dame is “back.”
You either believe in what Notre Dame is doing, or you’re waiting for them to change their identity.
That doesn’t look very likely.
Look for the Irish to play their brand of football and outlast Penn State’s best squad in decades.
Notre Dame moves on to the 2025 National Championship.
Look for:
Notre Dame Defense - Allows less than 100 rushing yards for the 3rd game in a row
Riley Leonard - 150+ Passing Yards
Jadarian Price - 1 Rushing Touchdown
Jordan Faison - 1 Receiving Touchdown
Win: ND:27 - 23:PSU
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