After more than four months of football, three rounds of the playoffs, and a total of 15 games, it all comes down to this - one final showdown for all the glory. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish will face off with the Ohio State Buckeyes for the 2025 College Football National Championship.
Photo by The Irish Tribune
This series has consisted of three regular-season home-and-home games, beginning in 1935 and 1936. The Irish won those first two matchups, but the series was put on hold for 60 years until another pair of games was scheduled for 1995 and 1996. The Buckeyes won both games handily, evening the all-time series at 2-2. The next two meetings came in the postseason: a 34-20 OSU win in the 2006 Fiesta Bowl and a 44-28 OSU win in the 2016 Fiesta Bowl.
The most recent meetings in this series came in 2022 and 2023. 2022 was Marcus Freeman’s first full season in South Bend and his first game against his alma mater. The Irish struck first with a field goal and managed to hold a 10-7 lead until the Buckeyes tossed a go-ahead touchdown with 17 seconds left in the 3rd quarter. After a 14-play 98-yard drive, Ohio State scored their 3rd touchdown with under 5 minutes left in the game, extending their lead to 21-10. Ultimately, the Irish were unable to mount a comeback, and the Buckeyes left with the win.
The next time around, Ohio State traveled to South Bend for the 2023 rematch. It was a defensive battle from the start, with no points scored in the 1st quarter and a major goal-line stand that ended in a Buckeye turnover on downs in the 2nd. The Irish defense stifled Ohio State’s final drive of the half in the red zone to force a field goal, putting the Buckeyes up 3-0 heading into halftime.
The game’s first touchdown came early in the 3rd quarter when OSU back TreVeyon Henderson broke off a massive 61-yard run to put the Buckeyes up 10-0. The Irish answered with a touchdown of their own, courtesy of a wildcat snap to Gi’Bran Payne from the 1-yard line, bringing the score to 7-10 with 3:35 left in the 3rd. The Irish got the ball back at the start of the 4th quarter and began a 96-yard drive that ended with a 2-yard pass from Sam Hartman to Rico Flores Jr., giving Notre Dame a 14-10 lead.
Notre Dame’s defense once again stepped up and forced another turnover on downs in the red zone, this time stuffing the Buckeyes on 4th and inches at the 10-yard line. The Irish offense got the ball back with only 4:17 left in the 4th but wasn’t able to burn enough clock, giving OSU the ball back with 1:30 left. Unfortunately, the Buckeyes were able to march down to Notre Dame’s goal line and, with only 0:03 seconds left in the game, scored the go-ahead touchdown to steal it 17-14. There was a significant amount of scrutiny placed on Marcus Freeman and the Irish coaching staff after it became known that they only fielded 10 players on the final two plays of the game. The sting of the loss was compounded by the clear evidence that Notre Dame had a legitimate chance to win and very well could have, had it not been for the avoidable mistakes in the game’s waning moments.
These are two of the most decorated programs in all of college football history, with a combined total of 19 National Titles and 13 Heisman trophies between them. While the Irish haven’t won a title since 1988, the Buckeyes have won twice in recent memory - in 2002 and 2014. Since the inception of the College Football Playoff, the Buckeyes have been involved in the postseason six times (2014, 2016, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2024), while the Irish have only managed three appearances (2018, 2020, 2024).
This is just the ninth game between Notre Dame and Ohio State and the third postseason matchup in the series. The Irish will be looking for their first bowl win against the Buckeyes and their first head-to-head win since 1935.
Each team stands on the precipice of greatness, only a single win away from securing the first National Championship of the 12-team CFP era. Ryan Day is looking to quiet his critics, both internal and external, while Marcus Freeman hopes to cap off his Cinderella season with Notre Dame’s first title in decades.
As the nation waits with bated breath, let’s take a look at the season's final matchup.
Here’s everything you need to know ahead of Monday’s game.
Ohio State
Ryan Day first assumed the helm of the Buckeyes in the 2018 season, when for three games, he filled in for recently suspended head coach Urban Meyer. It was later decided that Meyer would step down following the end of the season, and Day would formally assume the position at the start of 2019.
In his first season, Day led Ohio State to an undefeated 13-0 record, including a BIG-10 Championship, securing them a spot in the CFP. They went on to lose in the first round to Clemson in the Fiesta Bowl.
The 2020 COVID season was rocky, but the Buckeyes went 5-0 in the regular season without having to play Michigan before winning their second straight BIG-10 Championship. They once again faced Clemson in the CFP, but this time won handily, 49-28, to move on to the National Championship. Ultimately, the Buckeyes fell to No. 1 Alabama in embarrassing fashion, 52-24, finishing the season 7-1.
Day’s 2021 squad fell to Oregon in week 2, but responded by rattling off nine straight wins before facing Michigan in the regular season finale. For the first time since 2011, then No. 2 Ohio State fell to the No. 5 Wolverines 27-42, dropping the Buckeyes to 10-2 and eliminating them from CFP contention. Despite the loss, they earned an appearance in the Rose Bowl against Utah, where they won narrowly 48-45.
The 2022 Buckeyes won 11 straight games against the likes of No. 5 Notre Dame and No. 13 Penn State before once again facing No. 3 Michigan in the season finale. This time, Day and OSU were favored by a solid 8 points heading into the game. Despite holding a 20-17 halftime lead, the Buckeyes gave up 28 points in the second half, only mustering 3 points of their own en route to a 23-45 landslide defeat. The loss once again kept OSU out of the BIG-10 title game but still earned them a CFP invite as the No. 4 seed. They faced eventual champion UGA in round one, losing a heartbreaker 41-42.
2023 was a carbon copy of the year prior, with the Buckeyes jumping out to 11 straight wins, including No. 9 Notre Dame and No. 7 Penn State, before facing the Wolverines last. For a 3rd consecutive year, the Michigan-Ohio State game was played with both teams inside the top-5 and CFP implications at stake. Shockingly, Day and the Buckeyes lost yet again, falling 30-24 despite having the ball for the final drive of the game with a shot to win. It became the first time since 1995-1997 that OSU dropped three straight games to Michigan. The Buckeyes missed a shot at the CFP but earned a Cotton Bowl appearance against the Missouri Tigers, ultimately falling 14-3 to finish 11-2 for the 2nd straight year.
Ohio State’s 2024 campaign began with 5-straight double-digit wins before facing No. 3 Oregon on the road. The Buckeyes opened things up with a 10-play, 75-yard touchdown drive, but a key fumble led to a quick Oregon response. Both teams traded scores to send the game into halftime with the Ducks up 22-21. Ultimately, that point would remain the difference, as Oregon knocked in a field goal with 1:47 left in the 4th to take a 32-31 lead. They held on to win and handed the Buckeyes their first loss of the year. OSU responded with back-to-back narrow wins over unranked Nebraska (21-17) and No. 3 Penn State (20-13) before crushing Purdue and Northwestern.
Their next marquee game came at home against then No. 5 Indiana, who was riding high and undefeated. The Buckeyes made easy work of the Hoosiers, dispatching them 38-15 to hand IU their first loss of the season. Ohio State entered their final regular season matchup with unranked Michigan at No. 2 in the polls with a 10-1 record and a 20.5-point advantage.
It was a battle from the very beginning, and the game entered halftime tied 10-10. Both teams went scoreless in the 3rd quarter before the Wolverines kicked a go-ahead field goal with only 0:45 left in the 4th to steal the game. The loss brought Ryan Day’s record against Michigan to (1-4) with four straight losses and nearly derailed the season. Criticism of Day’s performance against Michigan reached a fever pitch before the Buckeyes' 8th seed placement in the CFP put them on pause.
In their first-round matchup, Ohio State drew 9th-seed Tennessee at home, where they cruised to an easy 42-17 win. They advanced to the quarterfinal round to rematch with BIG-10 Champion Oregon, shocking the nation with an equally impressive 41-21 win to avenge their regular season loss to the Ducks. Now 12-2, the Buckeyes moved on to face SEC runner-up and 5th-seeded Texas in the Cotton Bowl.
The Longhorns first drive fizzled out around the OSU 45-yard line, ultimately failing to convert on 4th and 3 and turning the ball over on downs. The Buckeyes responded with a clean 10-play, 64-yard drive ending in a score to put the game’s first points on the board. The two then traded four punts each until the Longhorns cobbled together a quick 1:27 drive that evened the score with an 18-yard pass from Quinn Ewers.
Just as things seemed to be deadlocked, the Buckeyes got the ball back with under 30 seconds left before halftime. Will Howard hiked the ball in shotgun and was immediately blitzed by the Texas defense, so he dumped the ball off to TreVeyon Henderson, who sprinted 75 yards for a touchdown. In the blink of an eye, the Buckeyes stole all Texas’ momentum and entered the half up 14-7.
Despite throwing an interception to open the 2nd half, OSU maintained their one-score lead until a 12-play 67-yard Longhorn drive evened the score at 14-14. After trading a few more punts, Ohio State lowered their heads and went on an almost 8-minute, 88-yard drive, ending in a Quinshon Judkins rushing touchdown to take the lead again.
The Longhorns responded with a drive from their own 25-yard line, working all the way down to Ohio State’s 1-yard line with a chance to tie the game. With less than 3 minutes left, Texas looked to chew up clock on the ground, but instead of powering up the middle, they pitched the ball outside and were blown up by OSU for a 7-yard loss. Now 3rd & goal, Ewers dropped back to try and beat the Buckeyes through the air but was pressured and knocked down by DL Jack Sawyer, tossing the ball incomplete. On 4th & goal, Ewers again dropped back, but just as he threw, Jack Sawyer was there once again. In one fell swoop, he blindsided Ewers, stripping the ball, which he scooped and returned 83 yards for a touchdown. It was the nail in Texas’ coffin, and the Buckeyes walked away with a 28-14 win, sealing their 2nd trip to the National Championship game under Day.
Ohio State Injury Report
DL - JT Tuimoloau - Ankle - Available
CB - Denzel Burke - Arm - Probable
OL - Seth McLaughlin - Achilles - Out
With all that said, it's truly been a tale of two seasons for Ryan Day and the Buckeyes. They began the year at No. 2, with expectations of a CFP run and another shot to beat Michigan. The midseason loss to Oregon hurt but was competitive and forgivable, yet the game’s aftermath was felt for weeks. OSU’s next two games were narrow and sloppy one-score wins over an unranked Nebraska and No. 3 Penn State before they found their stride again. Their 23-point win over Indiana looked lopsided but really came down to an Ohio State punt return touchdown and a botched Hoosiers’ punt that swung a one-score game to a much wider margin. Just the following week, the Buckeyes delivered their worst showing of the season against unranked Michigan, who figured them out and exploited it for a 13-10 win. Day and his team went from dominant to shaky to embarrassing. It was so bad that many were calling for Day’s job just over the Michigan performance alone until the Buckeyes transformed yet again into a different, more dominant team in the playoff. The Tennessee and Oregon wins completely flipped the script on Day and Ohio State, earning them praise from the public and seemingly quieting the calls for firing. OSU rode that newfound goodwill through the Texas game, but it wasn’t the same kind of dominance we’d seen in their two previous playoff showings. Yes, it was arguably the best competition OSU had faced all year, but the game was one play from being tied with less than 3 minutes to go.
Like Georgia, Ohio State is one of the best-coached, most talented, and most disciplined teams in the country. However, like Georgia, this isn’t hands-down their best team in years. They deserve to be in this game and in this position just as much as Notre Dame, but despite what the media may say, they are not unbeatable. Elite teams and bad teams alike have found a way to outlast the 2024 Buckeyes. The question is, can it be done again?
Notre Dame
The Orange Bowl clash between Notre Dame and Penn State lived up to its billing.
Both defenses managed to keep things scoreless in the 1st quarter despite several big gash plays. The Nittany Lions’ defense reeled in a Riley Leonard interception for the first big momentum swing of the game, but the Irish defense held strong and only allowed a field goal as the 2nd quarter began. Penn State then controlled the quarter with a 15-play, 90-yard drive to score, putting them up 10-0 and chewing more than 7 minutes off the clock. Before the half ended, Riley Leonard was sacked and hit his head hard enough to be taken out of the game, putting Steve Angeli on the field in Irish territory with only 1:30 left before half. Angeli orchestrated a sorely lacking passing attack down the field and into position for a field goal before halftime. The Irish had done nearly nothing on offense, but their defense was keeping them competitive.
The Irish scored right out of halftime with an 8-play, 75-yard drive of their own, tying things up at 10-10. After trading punts, the Irish put together another long drive that took them to Penn State’s 2-yard line with a little over 14 minutes left in the 4th. On 1st and goal, Leonard handed the ball off to Jeremiyah Love, who spectacularly out-willed the entire Nittany Lions defense, hurdling the first defender, dragging the second with him as he collided with two more defenders before leaping forward to break the plane. It gave Notre Dame their first lead of the game, 17-10.
Penn State quickly responded with their second touchdown to tie things back up at 17-17. On the ensuing drive, Riley Leonard tossed another interception that led to another Penn State score, stifling any Irish momentum while taking the lead 24-17. The Irish got the ball back with about 5 minutes remaining and began chipping away PSU’s defense. The Irish got to just about midfield before wideout Jaden Greathouse broke his defender’s ankles off the line of scrimmage and reeled in a perfect ball from Leonard. Once in the open, Greathouse hit another stellar move to drop PSU’s last defender on his butt, and he walked into the endzone, tying it 24-24.
With less than a minute remaining, Penn State’s Drew Allar tossed a late ball over the middle with pressure in his face, and Irish CB Christian Gray reeled it in for their first turnover of the game. Instead of playing it conservative and running out the clock to play in overtime, Freeman and the Irish capitalized on their field position, moving the ball just far enough into PSU territory to try for a field goal. With only 0:12 seconds left on the clock, Irish kicker Mitch Jeter lined up for his second kick of the night, drilling a 41-yard kick to seal the win 27-24. The win sent the Irish to their first National Title game since 2012.
Notre Dame Injury Report
RG - Rocco Spindler - Ankle - Available
RB Jeremiyah Love - Knee - Available
WR - Beaux Collins - Calf - Questionable
DT - Rylie Mills - Knee - Out
TE - Cooper Flanagan - Achilles - Out
LT - Anthonie Knapp - Ankle - Out
Yet again, the Irish did whatever was needed to get the win. Notre Dame had yet to trail this season nor mount a comeback through the air, and in just two quarters, they managed to do both. For the first time this year, the Irish offense out-gained their running game through the air and failed to win the turnover battle but still held on to win. Fittingly, the game came down to Mitch Jeter’s recently healed leg, and he nailed it, becoming the first kicker in CFP history to successfully make a game-winning field goal.
This team isn’t more talented than Ohio State, but they weren’t more talented than Penn State or Georgia, either. What makes this team special isn’t individual talent or elite statistics, it's their desire to win - and so far, it has been enough. Notre Dame doesn’t need to be perfect or even all that pretty, but they must continue to make big plays in big moments while not changing what got them here.
The Matchup
For only the second time this year, Notre Dame has opened as the underdog, this time by a two-score margin. The line opened right after Ohio State’s Cotton Bowl win over Texas, with the Buckeyes favored by (-9.5). Days later, the line has gradually crept down to a slimmer (-8.0) advantage for OSU and could continue to do so until game time on Monday. There’s a genuine possibility this line falls within a single score, which would signal a remarkable amount of belief that the Irish could pull this one off, or at least make some noise. Notre Dame is (12-2-1) against the spread this season and (2-0) when dubbed the underdog, while OSU is only (9-6) against the spread for the year.
Much like the Sugar Bowl and Orange Bowl, oddsmakers see this contest as a low-scoring affair. As of now, the game’s total is set at 45.5, the third straight playoff game the Irish will play with a sub-48 point total. In those three games, the totals have been 44 against Indiana, 33 against Georgia, and 51 against Penn State. For the Buckeyes, their playoff points totals have been 59 against Tennessee, 62 against Oregon, and 42 against Texas. The average of those six games comes out to 48.5. So, there’s a chance this one goes over the 45.5, but odds are these two elite defenses keep the total under.
With those numbers, the game’s implied score prediction would be around 27-18
Notre Dame’s Defense vs Ohio State’s Offense
This head-to-head pits arguably the two best coordinators in football against one another - OSU’s Chip Kelly and Notre Dame’s Al Golden.
Al Golden and the Irish defense have consistently maintained an elite level of play since the season began and have found a way to turn their game up another notch in the postseason. The Irish defense stifled a high-scoring Indiana offense, holding them to 17 points, 14 of which came in garbage time, held Georgia to their lowest score since Ole Miss with 10, and contained Penn State’s star QB to roughly 50% completion, 0 touchdowns, and an interception. Notre Dame has routinely displayed that they can elevate their game to the level of their opponent and can affect you in just the right way to give them the advantage.
Notre Dame’s defensive numbers are elite across the board, with the exception of the running game. They’re 2nd in PPG allowed, 2nd in passing yards allowed, and 9th in total yards allowed per game, but their rushing defense lags behind at 42nd overall. Thankfully, the Irish have been so dominant against the pass that they can force a pass-first team like PSU into their worst passing performance of the season. These are the kinds of tricks Golden and his squad use to get a leg up. They lean on their strengths to force opponents into playing the kind of game they want and then force them into a one-dimensional offense. PSU went from a passing group to a running group, while UGA was forced to become a pass-first team when their identity was on the ground.
Ohio State’s Offense - Players to Watch
Both UGA and Penn State were the best offenses the Irish had faced to date, but Notre Dame was still able to find a wrinkle and exploit it. Unfortunately, Ohio State has the complete package. UGA and PSU were both lacking a serious threat on the outside, allowing the Irish D to stack the box and play man-to-man out wide. That's how Notre Dame was able to focus in on what they left the opposing offenses with and exploit it. Unfortunately, that won't be the case against OSU. This will be the best offense the Irish have faced so far, and the pathways to victory and much narrower.
Ohio State’s offense has been prolific in the playoff but was relatively average for the majority of the season. Kansas State transfer Will Howard has been a massive part of their success, but he benefits from one of the best receivers in the country; Jeremiah Smith. The freshman phenom has become Howard’s #1 target this season, racking in over 1,000 yards and accounting for nearly half of Howard’s passing touchdowns. If the Irish will have any chance at beating the Buckeyes, they’ll need to find a way to erase Smith’s effect on the game as they did to Marvin Harrison Jr. in 2023. If the Irish can handle Smith with man coverage, it’ll give them an extra body to send at Howard.
Like Drew Allar, pressuring Howard will be critical to winning this battle. When pressured this season, Howard’s completion percentage dropped by more than 20% compared to when he had time to work with. That kind of drop-off is a statistic begging to be exploited.
Notre Dame’s keys to victory on defense are as follows:
Send the house to disrupt Howard and force bad decisions/reliance on the running game
Win 1-on-1 matchups with WRs to allow for focus on the run game
Limit the big explosive plays
Although Ohio State's offensive is riding a hot hand, the Irish have been more consistent all season and get a slight edge here.
Advantage: Soft Notre Dame
Notre Dame’s Offense vs Ohio State’s Defense
This head-to-head will be the biggest challenge of the season for Notre Dame.
Ohio State has the best defensive unit in the country and they lead nearly every major statistical category. They top the country in total YPG allowed, pass YPG allowed, and PPG allowed while placing 3rd in rush YPG allowed. They lead the nation with only 2.7 yards per rush allowed while racking up the 3rd most sacks in the country with 51 on the season. This Buckeye’s defense has no true weaknesses and presents the most complete package the Irish have faced all year. All in all, Notre Dame’s best unit is its defense, but OSU’s defense is even better.
Ohio State’s Defense - Players to Watch
The Buckeyes defense employs a zone-heavy scheme, making it incredibly difficult for opposing offenses to win the downfield battle. That zone defense could open things up underneath for the Irish and give Leonard a chance to shine. Leonard’s mobility and short passing game could be the perfect combo to confuse OSU’s DBs and line up the running game or deep passing game for big chunk plays. Like Howard, Leonard struggles with defensive pressure, but his mobility gives Notre Dame an outlet the Buckeyes don’t have. If Leonard can use his legs to extend plays or find defense gaps, the Irish can use one of Ohio State’s biggest strengths to their advantage. Leonard’s legs give the Irish a chance to level the playing field and force the Buckeyes into playing the game their way.
Lastly, the Irish offense must be effective in early down situations. If they’re unable to succeed on 1st and 2nd down, Ohio State will have a field day on obvious passing downs. It all comes down to a game flow. If Notre Dame’s offense can find a way to keep OSU guessing and strike a balance between the pass, the run, and Leonard’s legs, they’ll find far more openings to make plays.
If Notre Dame hopes to stay competitive in this head-to-head, they’ll need to put up their best and most complete offensive performance yet. They won’t be able to afford a slow start like they had against Penn State and won’t be able to win a shootout like the USC game. They’ll have to once again force an opposing defense to play the game their way, and if successful, the Irish may have a chance.
Notre Dame’s keys to victory on offense are as follows:
Establish the quick, intermediate passing game early
Use Leonard’s legs to salvage broken plays
Find success on 1st and 2nd down
OSU holds a heavy advantage here, but Notre Dame is fully capable of making this head-to-head competitive.
Advantage: Solid Ohio State
Notre Dame’s Special Teams vs Ohio State’s Special Teams
Special teams wasn’t very consistent for Notre Dame in the regular season, but has been crucial to their postseason success. Mitch Jeter has been night and day since the end of the regular season and has gone 7/8 over his last three games, including the game-winner over Penn State. While his season long numbers are unimpressive, Jeter’s recent hot streak has revitalized the Irish special teams and has helped to transform them from a liability to a legitimate strength.
Special Teams - Players to Watch
Ohio State’s Jayden Fielding has had an average season so far, but his performance has seen an opposite trajectory to Jeter’s. Fielding went 8/9 on field goals through 11 games but has regressed to just 3/6 over Ohio State’s last 4 games. Most notably, Fielding missed two kicks from under 40 yards against Michigan, which played a huge part in their loss. Whatever happened against the Wolverines has seemed to follow Fielding into the playoffs, as he missed again in round one and didn't attempt any against Texas. While end-of-season numbers favor OSU’s kicking game, the Irish get the edge with their recent performance and momentum. If this one comes down to clutch kicks, Jeter gets the nod.
Both teams average the same punting numbers, but Notre Dame’s punt coverage gives them a significant edge in net punt yards. As for punt returns, the Buckeyes have the edge with both a higher average and a punt return touchdown courtesy of Caleb Downs. On the flip side, the Irish rack up nearly double the kick return yards as OSU, and have a touchdown return on the books.
The only guarantee here is that Notre Dame will need their special teams to step up once again. Be that a blocked field goal, a fake punt, or a kick return, the Irish need all the contributions they can get if they’re going to have a chance. While the Irish do have the momentum edge, their success relies much more on winning this matchup.
Whatever way you look at it, this is pretty evenly matched. Both sides have their own small advantages, but neither noticeably separates themselves. Because this head-to-head is so close, a single special teams play could decide the game.
Advantage: Even
Prediction
For the first time in decades, Notre Dame is receiving a level of attention and respect most fans could only dream of. Yet even with this sea change, nearly no one in the media is picking the Irish to win this one outright.
And frankly, that's fair. Like it or not, Brian Kelly’s 2012 National Championship debacle still hangs over the program, and only one thing can change that - a win on the biggest stage there is.
There isn’t a specific phase of the game where the Irish have a substantial edge over the Buckeyes, they don’t have superior statistics, and they don’t have the same level of talent. There’s nothing in this head-to-head that screams, “Take the Irish, it's a no-brainer,” but there is something else - a whisper. It may be hard to hear at first, and was nearly silent after the NIU loss, but there’s a whisper that’s grown louder, little by little, over Notre Dame’s last 13 wins. It's the voice that says, “The Irish belong here,” the voice that promises, “They can actually win.”
The Indiana and Georgia games tested the team we all knew Notre Dame to be, but the Penn State win showed the nation a side of the Irish that we’d yet to see, and only when it was needed most. Call it blind faith or wishful thinking, but there’s something different about Marcus Freeman and the 2024 Fighting Irish squad. The only thing more ridiculous than Notre Dame making it to this point would be picking against them yet again.
Notre Dame wins a competitive battle over Ohio State to secure their 12th National Title in program history.
Look for:
Notre Dame Defense - 1 Defensive Score
Notre Dame Defense - 3 Sacks
Mitch Jeter - 3/3 on Field Goals
Riley Leonard - 0 Interceptions Thrown
Jordan Faison - 1 Receiving Touchdown
Win: ND:30 - 24:OSU
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