No. 12 Notre Dame heads to New Jersey this weekend to face off with No. 24 Navy for the 97th matchup in this historical rivalry. The Irish have the heavy advantage in the all time series record, and have won the last 6 matchups against the Midshipmen. This will be Notre Dame’s second neutral-site game in row, this time taking place at MetLife Stadium in the Meadowlands, home to the NFL’s New York Giants and New York Jets. This is the 2nd time Notre Dame and Navy have faced off at MetLife, first meeting in the inaugural season of the venue in 2010, where Navy handily beat the Irish 35-17 in Brian Kelly’s first season.
Photo by The Irish Tribune
There’s much to be said about the Notre Dame-Navy rivalry, as it's one of the most criticized and discussed annual meetings on Notre Dame’s schedule. Many say the series is past its prime, and in the ever-changing landscape of college football, no longer a wise investment for the Irish. On the other hand, advocates for the series point to its historical significance and the recent uptick in competitiveness. Whatever you may think of this matchup on a macro-level, the reality of the situation is that this year’s game is the most consequential meeting between the two in decades. This is only the 2nd time in the last 45 years both the Irish and Midshipmen will be ranked heading into their matchup, and this year’s game holds enormous CFP implications.
Navy
The Midshipmen had a rough year in 2023, beginning in week 0 with a crushing 42-3 loss to Notre Dame in Ireland, and ending with a 5-7 record and no postseason action. Head coach Brian Newberry enters his second year at Navy’s helm, having begun his career there as DC in 2019. After 4 seasons, Newberry inherited the top job from his predecessor, Ken Niumatalolo, who was at Navy for 8 seasons, where he won 11 games twice but finished with back-to-back 4-8 outings before his exit.
2024 has been a banner year for Newberry and the midshipmen, already overachieving expectations with an undefeated 6-game win streak heading into their matchup against the Irish. Although Navy’s campaign has been impressive, their success has come against relatively weak competition. Their most impressive win thus far came against now 6-1 Memphis, who they beat in a shoot-out 56-44, sealed with a pick-6 in the game’s final minute. It was a huge win for the Midshipmen, who were 9 point undogs heading into the matchup, and was the beginning of their push into the top-25.
Outside of Notre Dame and later Army, none of Navy’s other opponents currently ranked in the top-25. With that said, the Mids have managed to reconcile their easy slate with style points to emphasize their superiority, something the Irish have struggled to do themselves. Notre Dame is the first tier-one test for the Midshipmen, but they won’t be facing Navy’s typical offense. Coach Newberry brought in new Offensive Coordinator Drew Cronic for the 2024 season from Mercer University, tasking him with redesigning Navy’s outdated offense and bringing it into the modern era. The new scheme melds Navy’s traditional flexbone triple-option with a hybrid Wing-T and complimenting spread principles to create a complex and unique obstacle for opposing defenses.
Although Navy has pretty much always been a run-first squad, this year is a bit different. Not only can the Midshipmen throw the ball, but they’re darn good at it. Cronic’s offense drops back 12 times a game on average, and now runs plays out of the shotgun at an unheard of 45% clip for the program. Their passing game ranks 2nd in the FBS for yards per attempt, yards per completion, and passer rating, while leading the nation in red zone scoring offense with 100% (23/23). Of those 23 red zone scores, the Midshipmen converted all but 1 for touchdowns, giving them a ridiculous 95.6 touchdown rate so far.
Notre Dame
The Irish are coming off a win in Atlanta over Georgia Tech, but like several games this year, it was a mixed bag. The Irish offense only outgained Tech in total yardage 385-333, managing not to regress, but far from the kind of progression hoped for after the Stanford blowout. Leonard led the offense with 203 yards through the air, his second highest mark of the season, but threw an interception and failed to throw a touchdown for the 4th time in 6 games. Instead, he continued to contribute on the ground with 51 yards and 2 scores. Jeremiyah Love had a quieter day than usual on the ground, with only 36 yards and a score, but had his best receiving day so far with 3 catches for a team-high 57 yards.
Notre Dame’s defense did what they’ve done for most of the season, and effectively contained the Yellow Jackets offense. Outside of a 9-play 80-yard touchdown drive late in the 4th quarter, the Irish defense held Tech to just 7 points for almost the entire game, only allowing them 64 rushing yards and winning the turnover margin 2-1. Adon Shuler padded the lead with his own late 4th quarter score, a 36-yard pick-6 interception that gave the Irish their last score of the game. Ultimately, the win didn’t change much for Notre Dame’s current outlook. They stayed put at No. 12 in the rankings, didn't get worse but didnt get better through the air, and again failed to add those much-needed “style points” to their CFP resume.
The Matchup
Notre Dame’s Defense V. Navy’s Offense
First year starting QB Blake Horvath heads the new-look offense, and nearly everything goes through him. He leads the Midshipmen in passing yards, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns, amounting to 1,509 all-purpose yards. He’s also one of only two QB’s in the FBS with 10+ rushing touchdowns and 10+ passing touchdowns (the other being Alabama’s Jalen Milroe).
Navy’s new passing prowess has complicated Notre Dame’s defensive approach, but they’d still rather keep the ball on the ground as much as possible. Navy’s passes are still being used as a complimentary feature to their identity as a run-first team, the only difference is, they’re good at them now.
Navy is banking on confusing the Irish with their new scheme and their FBS leading 76% pre-snap movement, combined with a pass game Notre Dame will have to respect for the first time in recent memory. The Midshipmen don’t have to be perfect to steal this game, they just have to force Notre Dame into enough mistakes to make a difference.
While their competition has been relatively weak, Navy has won each of their games by double digits, and ranks 4th in the country with 44.8 PPG. The Midshipmen are 4th in rush yards per game with 274.8, 5th in yards per rush with 6.0, and 7th in yards per play with 7.3. It seems that Navy’s progression through the air has not come at the cost of their success on the ground.
All this production comes with a very disciplined approach. The Mids have only given up the ball up 2 times so far (both interceptions), and have kept things completely clean for the last 5 games. The Irish won’t be able to rely on Navy handing them the win, so they must take control and force the Midshipmen to play their game. If the Irish can limit Navy’s production on the ground and force them to throw the ball, it’ll be a long day for Cronic and his offense.
Notre Dame’s defense is its strong suit, and they’re elite.
They rank top-10 in yards per play allowed, PPG allowed, YPG allowed, and completion percentage allowed. Navy’s offensive strength is without a doubt its running game, but it'll face off with one of the best rush defenses in the country.
Collectively, the Irish D-line hasn’t allowed a single 100 yard rusher yet this season, have only given up 3 rushing touchdowns, and have gotten to the quarterback a whopping 18 times.
Navy’s response to Notre Dame’s pressure up front is a stellar front 5. The Midshipmen offensive line has only surrendered 3 sacks through 6 games, good for 5th best in the country, and will be crucial to Navy stopping the blitz and establishing the run.
For all their talent and elite statistics, Notre Dame’s defense has developed a strange tendency. In 4 of their 6 games, the Irish defense has allowed opponents to score in the first quarter, with only Miami OH and Purdue held scoreless. This tendency to fall behind early on defense is compounded by the Irish offense often failing to score early. If the Irish defense can keep Navy scoreless in the 1st, it may give the offense enough momentum to put points up early.
This is a strength on strength matchup, and one that will likely be decided by talent, and big chunk plays. If the Irish defense can leverage their talent advantage and keep Navy’s explosiveness to a minimum, they should be able to handle this offense without too many issues.
Advantage: Strong Notre Dame
Notre Dame’s Offense V. Navy’s Defense
Notre Dame’s offense has been its loudest question mark all season long.
Denbrock has continued the program’s dominance on the ground, despite Audric Estime’s departure and a plague of offensive line injuries, but the passing attack has regressed significantly.
It's a tale of two completely different teams: on the one hand, the Irish are a team with one of the most effective ground games in the country, while their passing game on the other hand, has been at best, serviceable, and at worst - nearly nonexistent.
The Irish have slowly grown in the passing game as the season has progressed, but getting the ball downfield is still a struggle. As of right now, Leonard is nearly always in a 3 step drop with one, maybe two reads for short to intermediate yardage. It’s slowly building Leonard’s confidence with his receivers and Denbrock, but leaves the passing game with a very small scope and often leads to a last-ditch QB take from Leonard. Denbrock has done a good job of adding in RPOs to complicate their looks, but without a true threat to toss it down field, Navy can afford to stick close to Irish receivers. If the Irish can’t strike a balance against Navy, they’ll have to put up another impressive day on the ground and hold on to the ball.
Thankfully, Notre Dame’s rushing game has proven they can win without an aerial threat if properly set up. Leonard, Love, and Price have combined for 1,247 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns, with each averaging at least 6.0 yards on the ground. It's enough production to win the Irish a game if they lean into it completely, but a further developed and more successful passing game would only make the rushing attack that much more effective.
For better or worse, Notre Dame’s offense has settled into what is likely its final form of progression, and Denbrock will need to find the right schematic balance to keep things rolling if the passing game never gets better.
Navy’s defense isn’t its pure strength, but they have some pretty solid numbers. They’re 30th with 19.7 PPG allowed, along with 10 interceptions and 4 forced fumbles, good for 2nd in turnover margin with +12, and 5th in defensive scoring with 3 touchdowns. Their best performance on defense has come in the red zone, where they rank 4th with only 12/19 trips ending in points, a stout 63.2% red zone defense efficiency. Of those 12 scores, only 8 were touchdowns. This “Bend Don’t Break” defensive approach has paid off for them thus far, but hasn't made them elite.
They rank 92nd with 387.7 YPG allowed, along with 95th place for rushing YPG allowed with 165.0. Navy is talented, but not elite on defense. They have enough firepower to give their offense a chance to win, but not enough talent to dominate a team like Notre Dame. Their turnover margin, interceptions, and red zone intensity are enough to take advantage of Notre Dame’s mistakes, but not enough to force the Irish into making them. If the Notre Dame can establish the run and even throw the ball with average success, it'll likely be too much for Navy’s defense to contend with.
Advantage: Leaning Notre Dame
Special Teams
Notre Dame’s special teams unit hasn't had a particularly successful year so far, and have recently been struck with the injury bug. Grad kicker Mitch Jeter is again listed as questionable after having missed the majority of Stanford and all of Georgia Tech with a hip injury. The job will fall to backup walk-on kicker Zac Yoakam who went 9/9 on extra points and 1/2 on field goals in two games.
The Irish special teams showed out against the Yellow Jackets last Saturday, posting their best performance of the season. They sold a fake punt and a fake field goal, blocked a field goal, and smothered Tech’s return men in their own territory on multiple occasions. With several of their special teams surprises now on film, the Irish likely won't be quite as tricky against the Mids, but they may have a few more tricks up their sleeve if they see the right stuff on the field.
As for Navy, their kicker has been a bit spotty, but they’ve gotten away with it without needing to rely on him. That could be a different story in this game. Junior Nathan Kirkwood has gone 32/35 on extra points in 6 games and 3/4 on field goals, leaving a possible opening for an Irish special teams unit hitting their stride. Navy’s kickoffs have been the weakest part of their special teams so far, with only 12 registered touchbacks on 39 total kickoffs. Shallow kicks may open things up for Irish return man Jayden Harrison, who is looking for his first touchdown return of the season, and above average starting field position could be critical for the Irish in a game where they’ll be fighting to get the ball away from Navy.
Advantage: Leaning Notre Dame
Prediction
Notre Dame’s week 2 loss to NIU transformed their smooth, paved road to the playoff into a hazy dirt path with a recurring fork in it. That fork has arrived each following week alongside Notre Dame’s next opponent, with one path hopefully leading to the postseason, and the other - playoff elimination. This week to week struggle for survival follows a schedule that seemed far less daunting prior to the season’s start, and one that continues to evolve. Enter the service academies. No one could have possibly imagined FSU and USC being outshined by the likes of Army and Navy, but we didn’t expect the Irish to drop a game to a MAC school either, did we? In place of those blue-chip underperformers, Navy and Army have emerged as Notre Dame’s last two chances to bolster their CFP resume.
It's often said that Notre Dame is most teams’ “Super Bowl” but Navy wants this win for a different reason than usual. Instead of just looking to best their rival and play spoiler, the Midshipmen are looking to stay perfect, and use the Irish as a launchpad for a postseason bid of their own. Because of the history between these two programs and Notre Dame’s relative superiority as a football powerhouse, the Irish are in a lose-lose situation.
If they win, great - they were supposed to, it's just Navy, they always beat Navy.
But, if they lose - Navy stays a media darling and continues their improbable journey to the Playoff, while Notre Dame’s season is effectively over.
While there’s plenty of reason to be concerned, there’s really only two ways this game shakes out:
A comfortable no-doubter by the Irish (ie. Stanford/Purdue).
A close, competitive game that the Irish have the chance to lose, but ultimately pull out the win with a score that doesn't tell the full story of the game. (ie. Louisville, Georgia Tech).
The Irish may struggle in this one, but chances are, they find a way to best an outmatched but dangerous Navy squad for their 3rd win over a ranked opponent this season. That doesn't mean it’ll be pretty. This will be a struggle of needs and wants, with the Irish once again accomplishing what they need to, but likely failing to fully accomplish what fans and the CFP committee want.
Look for:
Notre Dame’s defense - holds Navy to 225 rush yards or less
Notre Dame’s defense - ends Navy’s perfect 23/23 red zone streak
Jeremiyah Love - 2 rushing touchdowns for the first time this season
Riley Leonard - 2 passing touchdowns / 1 rushing touchdown
Mitchell Evans - 1st receiving touchdown of the season
Win: (7-1)
ND: 31 - 23 :NAVY
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