For the second straight week, Notre Dame has surprised us, but this time, in a good way.
The Irish hit the road once again in week 3, following arguably the worst loss in program history, and handed the Purdue Boilermakers the single-worst loss in their 137-year history. The 66-7 thumping marked the largest margin of victory in the rivalry’s history and the most points scored by the Irish since 2019. Along with the win came a mix of emotions. Many were happy to see Freeman right the ship and prevent an ugly slide, some were elated with the offensive onslaught, and some were even more upset about the NIU loss after witnessing what looked like a completely different team.
Photo by The Irish Tribune
Happy or not, the Irish are not fully back in the CFP conversation, but definitely aren’t out of it completely. It could be argued that the loss to NIU came from Freeman’s squad overlooking what they viewed as weaker competition, thus Notre Dame will have to take the rest of the season week by week if they have a chance to win out. That mission continues this Saturday, September 21st, with the Irish seeking their first home win of the season against their 2nd MAC opponent, the Miami (OH) RedHawks.
Miami (OH)
After working with Brian Kelly at Grand Valley State, Chuck Martin followed him to Notre Dame in 2010 to coach the Irish DB unit. In 2012, Martin moved up to become Kelly’s OC and QBs coach, until he was hired away by Miami (OH) to become their next head coach. Now in his 11th season with Miami (OH), Martin has a 56-64 record but is coming off his best season so far, going 11-3 with a MAC championship and bowl game appearance in 2023.
The RedHawks are the second MAC opponent on Notre Dame’s schedule this year, and like NIU, they’re one of the more experienced teams the Irish will face this year. They return 74% of their 2023 production according to ESPN, including 6th-year QB Brett Gabbert. They did lose their best WR Gage Larvadain in the portal to South Carolina, along with senior running back Rashad Amos who left for Ole Miss, leaving a gaping hole in the RedHawks’ backfield after losing his 1,000+ yard - 13 TD production from the 2023 season. Defense is this team’s strong point, led by senior linebackers Matt Salopek and Ty Wise who accounted for 265 tackles between the two of them last year, and led the defense to the 5th best spot in points allowed. While impressive, you have to consider the talent they faced and their lack of Power-5 size and strength.
Thus far, the Redhawks have had a rough start to 2024, entering their matchup with the Irish at 0-2 after an opening week road loss to Northwestern 6-13, and a home-opening loss to
Cincinnati 16-27. Against Northwestern, Brett Gabbert put up 227 yards on 22/37 passing, with
no touchdowns and 2 interceptions, while senior wide receiver Cade McDonald led Miami (OH) with 105 yards on 8 catches, followed by Reggie Virgil and Kevin Davis with 32 yards each. Things were much worse on the ground for the RedHawks, with a final total of 40 rushing yards and no scores, led by Jordan Brunson with 8 rushes for 33 yards. The RedHawks defense only gave up 178 passing yards, 150 yards on the ground, and a single touchdown on a QB scramble, but the offense ultimately couldn't get enough going to win.
Week 2 against the Bearcats was an improvement for the RedHawks, but not by much. Gabbert put on a better performance with 339 yards on 23/35 passing, this time throwing 2 touchdowns and only 1 interception. Once again, Cade McDonald led the receivers room with 8 catches for 135 yards and a touchdown, followed by Reggie Virgil with 3 catches for 77 yards and a score. Somehow, things on the ground were even worse than week 1, as Miami (OH) only scraped together 24 total rushing yards and no scores. Kevin Davis led with only 14 yards on 3 carries, followed by Henry Hesson and Keyon Martin with 13 yards a piece.
Miami (OH) only has 22 total points through 2 games, making their 11.0 PPG the 2nd fewest in
the country. They’ve only scored 2 offensive touchdowns, both of which came through the air
but were overshadowed by Gabbert’s 3 interceptions, and haven’t registered a single rushing
touchdown. On the other hand, their defense has only allowed 20.0 PPG so far, which is
respectable, but have only managed 2 sacks and 0 interceptions. They’ve been led by Salopek, who already has 19 tackles and a fumble recovery through 2 games, and Wise who has 13 tackles and one of the team’s two sacks. The Redhawks’ offensive line has been a real weak point for 2024, as they’ve surrendered 7 sacks through only 2 games, tied for 11th worst in the country, and have led the way for the worst rushing offense in the country with only 32.0 yards per game.
At the end of the day, this Miami (OH) team is a group looking to both change and establish a
new identity. The once-balanced offense from 2023 is gone, and the 2024 offense needs to
decide if they’re capable of some sort of run game or if they’ll have to double down on their passing game. On defense, Miami (OH) needs proof that this defense can lead their whole team to success like last year, or if their defense won't be able to repeat the same level of success, even with all the returning experience.
Notre Dame
Leonard put up a solid yet somewhat strange performance in only 2 quarters of action against
Purdue. He tossed 112 yards on 11/16 throwing, but once again failed to record a passing
touchdown. Instead, he went off for 100 rushing yards on 11 carries for 3 of Notre Dame’s 6
scores on the ground, continuing his outsized rushing contributions despite his absent passing success. Steve Angeli came in during the 2nd half and immediately threw Notre Dame’s only 2 touchdown passes of the season, going for 100 yards on only 6/9 passes. Kenny Minchey came in after Angeli and went 1/1 passing for 4 yards along with a rushing touchdown.
The running game saw more of the same from Jeremiyah Love, who ran for a season-high 109
yards along and a score, coming on a 48-yard dash around the edge. Jadarrian Price did his
thing yet again, breaking a massive 70-yard run for a touchdown to finish with 86 yards on the
day. Notre Dame’s 364 rushing yards meant things were pretty quiet through the air, as the Irish only managed 216 passing yards and didn’t have a single player with more than 3 catches. Jayden Harrison led the team with 47 receiving yards on 2 catches, while both passing touchdowns were pulled in by Irish tight ends, Cooper Flanagan and Kevin Bauman.
While Denbrock’s offense has its flaws and deserves most of the criticism levied at it, the Irish are currently averaging 36.3 PPG and have 14 total touchdowns across 3 weeks. Of those 14
scores, 12 have come on the ground - 4 via Leonard rushes, and only 2 through the air - a
numerical depiction of the lopsided offensive approach we’ve seen thus far.
The Irish defense confused Hudson Card all game, forcing him to go 11/24 for only 124 yards, 1
passing touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Jason Onye led the defense with 1.5 sacks, followed
by Jordan Botelho and Boubacar Traore with 1 a piece and Donovan Hinish with a 1/2 sack.
Traore also pulled in 1 of Notre Dame’s 2 interceptions and took it back 34 yards for a score,
with Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa grabbing the other. Things were only worse on the ground for the
Boilermakers, with Reggie Love only managing 61 yards on 10 carries and Devin Mockobee
only 19 yards on 9 carries. Purdue’s longest rush of the day was a mere 11 yards and no one
able to score on the ground. Purdue’s receivers only pulled in 11 total balls, with Kam Brown
yards and the only Boilermaker touchdown of the day.
The worst part of the Purdue game was the bevy of injuries that will only make things tougher
for the Irish going forward. Senior DL Jordan Botelho was heartbreakingly carted off the field
with a season-ending leg injury, along with center Ashton Craig who left with a season-ending
knee injury, and RG Billy Schrauth with an ankle injury, though he’s expected to only miss a few weeks. Behind the subpar passing attack, Notre Dame’s biggest weakness is without a doubt the offensive line. Through 3 games, the Irish line has gotten progressively worse, surrendering 1 sack against TAMU, 2 against NIU, and 3 against Purdue, an issue only compounded by the 2 fresh OL injuries. Thankfully, veterans Pat Coogan and Rocco Spindler will step up to fill those empty roles, with Coogan moving from LG to Center, Spindler at RG, and Sam Pendleton filling the now-open LG spot. This will be Coogan’s first official start at Center, although he does have some time there, but that now makes 3 backups on Notre Dame’s front 5, a concerning stat for a position group we knew would have some growing pains before the season even began.
The Purdue win was enough to calm Notre Dame’s troubled waters and moved them up one
spot to #17 as we enter week 4. Purdue was the opportunity to get young guys playing time that NIU was supposed to be, and things will likely be the same against the RedHawks. As long as Notre Dame doesn’t put itself behind the 8-ball early, we’re likely to see a similar level of personnel shuffling that we did against the Boilermakers.
Prediction:
Due to the unpredictability of Notre Dame’s 2024 team, predicting their games seems to get
harder by the week. This seems like an almost “for-sure” win - kind of like NIU was supposed to be - but like lightning strikes, is the same thing really going to happen again? Notre Dame’s
dominant win over Purdue was exactly the kind of showcase the program needed, but it
shouldn’t have been so sweet that it fully removed the bitterness of the NIU loss. As long as the Irish can keep their focus on what's directly in front of them and don’t overlook Miami (OH) in favor of the Louisville matchup in week 5, we should see a Notre Dame team closer to the one that showed up against Purdue.
The RedHawks return a ton of experience and have enough talent to make some noise and
take advantage of mistakes, but odds say the Irish have no serious issues handling business.
Although the margin won't be anywhere close to the Purdue game, this won't be a hangover
game, and the Irish should cover the spread and the final score will likely go over the 43.5 total.
Look for:
The Irish to rush for at least 2-4 scores on the ground (hot take being 2 touchdowns for
Love).
Riley Leonard to finally throw a passing touchdown of his own.
Mitch Jeter to go perfect from the field on both field goals and extra points.
The Irish defense to hold the RedHawks to less than 100 yards on the ground.
The Irish defense to not allow a single touchdown for the first time this season.
Even with the predictions above, this won’t be a full “return to form” game for Freeman's squad. The struggling passing game won’t magically figure itself out overnight, but Notre Dame’s prolific ground attack and elite defense should carry the Irish to a comfortable win.
Win: (3-1)
ND: 41 - 6 MIA (OH)
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