For the first time this season, 16th-ranked Notre Dame will face a higher-ranked opponent, as they welcome the now 15th-ranked Louisville Cardinals to South Bend for week 5. This is only the 5th matchup between the two schools and will be the deciding game in an all-time series currently tied at 2-2.
Photo by The Irish Tribune
Louisville
Jeff Brohm is only in his second season as head coach of Louisville, but Marcus Freeman and the Irish know him all too well. Brohm led his alma mater to an impressive 2023 season, winning 5 straight games before hosting then #10 Notre Dame. The matchup came on the heels of a draining series of games for the Irish, beginning with the heartbreaking last-second loss to Ohio State at home before the narrow 21-14 road win at Duke against Riley Leonard. Notre Dame arrived in Kentucky amidst a perfect storm of circumstances, and the Cardinals exploited them perfectly. After 3 quarters, the Cardinals led 17-13, until 3 Irish turnovers let Louisville run away with it 33-20. The win legitimized Louisville’s success and pushed their record to 6-0, while the upset loss dropped the Irish to 5-2, shattering any CFP hopes they had left. After losing to Pitt the following week, Brohm led Louisville on another 4-game win streak before losing the final 3 games of their season to finish 10-4. Despite the late slide, it was the program’s best season since their 12-1 outing in 2013 under Charlie Strong.
Louisville was one of the best teams in the ACC last year, and while they look different in 2024, their returning talent and portal moves have made this game a tough game for the Irish once again.
The Cardinals were incredibly active in the portal and brought in five four-star players to bolster their unit, but their offense poses the most unknowns. They lost 3000+ yard QB Jack Plumber, 1,000+ yard RB Jawhar Jordan, and their top receiver Jamari Thrash to the NFL, but will look to transfer QB Tyler Shough and a 66% returning production percentage to keep them competitive once again. The defense returns a staggering 79% production on defense alone and is Louisville’s strongest group, giving them their best chance of staying competitive against the Irish. DL Ashton Gillotte and CB Quincy Riley return to lead the group. Gillotte had 11 sacks in 2023, with 1.5 of them coming against the Irish along with a forced fumble, and Riley grabbed 49 tackles and three interceptions, one of which came courtesy of Notre Dame’s Sam Hartman.
The 3-0 2024 Cardinals have looked impressive thus far, but they’ve yet to play a road game and the quality of their opponents has been relatively weak. Louisville opened the season at home against FCS Austin Peay, who they crushed 62-0 for their first win. The Cardinal's offense had a field day, scoring on six of its first seven drives to end the day with 571 total yards of offense. The Cardinal's defense pitched a shutout, registered seven sacks, scored a touchdown via a fumble recovery, and held the Governors to only 106 yards total. 6th-year transfer QB Tyler Shough threw for 232 yards and four touchdowns on 18/24 in his Louisville debut and tossed at least one ball to 15 different receivers. The Cardinals running game piled on with three touchdowns from three different backs, along with nearly 300 yards on the ground. Louisville welcomed Conference USA’s Jacksonville State for week two, and it was more of the same. The Cards put up a stunning 610 yards of total offense en route to a confident 49-14 win over the Gamecocks. Tyler Shough had another impressive showing, tossing 349 yards and two touchdowns to 12 different receivers before being subbed out for reserves in the fourth. The Cardinals' rushing attack collected five touchdowns with five different backs and ended the day with 233 yards. Louisville’s defense allowed 290 total yards to the Gamecocks but only surrendered 91 yards in the 2nd half along with an interception. Interestingly, Jacksonville State’s QB Tyler Huff only threw for 160 yards but managed to run for 101 on 18 rushes, eclipsing the 100-yard mark for only the 2nd time in his career. Once again, the Cardinals dispatched an inferior opponent while at home and entered the BYE week preparing for their first true test of the season, Georgia Tech.
For the third straight game, the Cardinals held home-field advantage and the Yellowjackets hit the road for week four. This was by far Louisville’s closest game this season, with multiple lead changes and massive momentum swings. Georgia Tech struck first on a Haynes King run up the middle for a touchdown, and then quickly blocked a Louisville field goal attempt to keep them off the board. It wasn’t until Yellow Jacket’s QB Haynes King tossed an ill-advised lateral deep in his own territory that the Cards got on the board. Louisville’s Quincey Riley deflected the would-be lateral into the endzone, where Cards DL Ramon Puryear recovered it for a game-tying touchdown. Louisville rode the defensive score to 10 unanswered points before Tech responded with another rushing touchdown, sending the game into halftime with the Cardinals up 17-14.
Georgia Tech kicked a field goal to tie the game before Tyler Shough tossed a 57-yard touchdown pass to Ja’Corey Brooks to take the lead late in the 3rd. With a little more than 11 minutes to play, Tyler Shough tripped in the Cards’ endzone and surrendered a safety, allowing the Yellow Jackets to pull within five. On the ensuing drive, Tech drove down the field to set up a 50-yard field goal attempt to draw them within two points, but Louisville’s Tayon Holloway had something else in mind. As the kick took to the air, Holloway lept in from the left and blocked the kick, immediately scooping it up and returning it for the score. The special teams touchdown put the Cards up 31-19 with only 7:05 left in the 4th, ultimately spelling the end for Georgia Tech. Interestingly, Georgia Tech recorded more 1st downs, fewer penalties, more rushing yards, and more passing yards than Louisville, but still managed to lose. The Cards won despite gaining just 57 rushing yards, only the 2nd time in the last decade they’ve failed to break 60 yards on the ground, and didn’t record a sack for the first time this season. Louisville’s defensive touchdown and blocked field goal score were the real difference makers in this contest and showed the Cardinals’ ability to win even without impressing on offense.
Notre Dame
Notre Dame enters this contest as roughly a touchdown favorite with home-field advantage and a respectable 3-1 record, but there’s a serious undercurrent of tension within the program and fanbase that has made this matchup a serious worry. Before the 2024 season even began, the Louisville meeting was identified as a “Trap Game” primarily because of the 2023 loss, but as each of the first four games have passed, Marcus Freeman’s team seems to inspire less and less confidence that they can avoid the avoidable mistakes. The Miami (Ohio) game was yet another underwhelming performance for the Irish offense, despite it arguably being their best outside of the Purdue game, but it doesn’t inspire enough hope to believe the Irish offense reaches full form against the Cardinals.
The Irish originally announced the Louisville matchup as the “Green Jersey Game” for 2024 and recently confirmed the official uniform will be the green jerseys from the Ohio State game last year, with the pants expected to be a matching green. The green-out elevates an absolute must-win home game to a spirited revenge mission that could get the Irish back into serious College Football Playoff conversations. This time around, the Louisville trap game is less of a trap and more of a realistically possible loss. At the start of the season, there seemed no chance Freeman and his boys let a loss to Louisville happen again, but that's what we said about Group-of-5 teams at home before NIU. Hopefully, home-field advantage and the green jerseys give the Irish an edge instead of further shaking their focus.
This is a strength vs strength battle, with Notre Dame's defense getting the edge over Louisville’s offense, and the Cards’ defense getting the edge over a one-dimensional Irish offense. The rushing attack for the Irish should only continue to succeed, while the passing game likely can't get much worse, and should trend slowly upward as the season progresses. The Cardinals excel in run defense while that's the Irish offense’s biggest and technically only strength. On the flipside, Louisville’s offense strength lies in their pass game while the Irish secondary is the defense’s biggest edge. Both squads' special teams have seen struggles punting, allowing blocked kicks, and missing kicks, so this may come down to a missed extra point or a blocked field goal. In a close one, neither team can afford to leave any points on the board.
The biggest concern we have with this Irish team is why fans don’t seem to trust them; Marcus Freeman’s teams either play up to the talent of a better team or play down to the level of worse competition. Two questions that need to be answered are: Which Notre Dame squad shows up to play? And can the Irish control which version of their team shows up? Regardless of what these answers turn out to be, this game will show us what the 2024 team is truly made of.
Prediction:
This matchup feels like it could very easily be a much more competitive version of the Miami (Ohio) game, with Notre Dame’s kinks both on display and being worked out in real-time, but against a much more capable team. This is going to be a close matchup whichever way it goes, and could very well be the toughest battle the Irish have outside of USC this regular season. Prepare for the Irish to surprise us somehow in this one, but something feels like this could be the first game where the Irish defense will look to the offense to help bail them out, The Cardinals will manage to score more than one touchdown on the Irish defense, and it'll be left up to Riley Leonard and the Notre Dame offense to put up enough points to win. The score in this one won't be all that high, but it could very likely go over the points total, even in a somewhat close matchup.
Look for:
Jeremiyah Love and Riley Leonard each rush for at least one touchdown.
Riley Leonard to throw his second passing touchdown.
The Irish defense held the Cardinals to less than 250 yards through the air.
The Irish defense will force Louisville’s first turnover of the season.
Louisville to miss a field goal or extra point.
This game has equal opportunity to both save or break the rest of Notre Dame’s season, but ultimately, the Irish should find a way to win a close once in yet another unsatisfying win, with the true reward being a revenge win for 2023 against arguably their best opponent of 2024 thus far.
Win: (4-1)
Notre Dame Wins: 27 - 20
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