Notre Dame vs. Indiana - Everything You Need to Know

'Twas the night before the Playoff, when all across the country

Every fan was waiting, football hungry.

The matchups were set in the bracket with care

In hopes that a Championship would soon be theirs.

Photo by The Irish Tribune

Round 1 of the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff is nearly upon us, and action kicks off with a somewhat rare in-state showdown between the 10th seed Indiana Hoosiers and the 7th seed Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Despite only 200 miles separating them and a history dating back to 1898, this will be the first meeting between the two in more than 20 years, and only the 29th in series history.

It seems fitting this reunion arrives at the doorstep of so many firsts.

The first 12-team playoff, the first postseason game at Notre Dame Stadium, the first Irish home game on a Friday night, Notre Dame's first playoff appearance since 2018, Indiana's first playoff appearance ever, and the Hoosier's best single season record.

There may not be a bitter rivalry at play, no trophy to raise, no committee left to impress - but the stakes are at their very highest, and both teams are playing to keep their National Championship dreams alive.

Here’s everything you need to know ahead of Friday's game.

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Indiana

In just one year, the Indiana Hoosiers have gone from a (3-9) dumpster fire to a legitimate (11-1) playoff contender, and it's all due to 1st year Head Coach Curt Cignetti. While not new to the sport, Indiana is Cignetti’s first Power-4 gig and boy is he making an instant impact. When Cignetti arrived in Bloomington, he brought 13 of his players from James Madison and attracted another 17 players through the portal. It was an immediate staff, player, and culture overhaul, and it shows. 

Indiana’s 2024 Cinderella story began outside the top-25, with virtually no media attention. They only managed to crack the rankings after their 5th straight win, but they continued to dominate their weak competition until they headed on the road to face Michigan. While they did come out on top, Cignetti and his squad struggled for the first time, and in a game they should have handled confidently, only managed a 20-15 win. This is where grumblings began that Indiana may be the beneficiary of an easy schedule and not quite as good as they look on paper, or at best, on the other side of their season peak. Their next game against OSU failed to quiet those whispers, when the Buckeyes blew them out of the water 38-15. Indiana put up their worst two performances of the season in back to back games at the very end of their season, but their slide only knocked them back to #10 in the polls. When Indy’s critics were at their loudest, they responded against mutual opponent of the Irish, Purdue, who they routed 66-0 to end their season on a high note. 

This is by far the most successful season in Indiana football history, but by season’s end, they played only a single ranked opponent, who they lost to, and went just (1-1) against teams with a winning record. They played mostly name-brand blue-chip opponents, but their 67th ranked SOS is worse than Notre Dame’s lambasted schedule that ranks 57th. In comparison, the Irish faced and beat 4 ranked opponents while maintaining a 10-week win streak into the postseason. That's not to say the Hoosiers are not on the same level as Notre Dame, but instead that they’re more of an unknown commodity.

While their path to this moment looks a lot different than Notre Dame's, the Hoosiers deserve to be here just as much as any of the other 11 teams in the playoff. With that said, does any of that mean they can hang on the road with Notre Dame? If this season has taught us anything, it's yes - anything is possible and at this point, there’s no layup opponents or easy schedules left. Indiana has a legitimate chance of stealing this game, and they’re undoubtedly the best team the Irish have faced on both sides of the ball all year.

Indiana Injury Report

• CB Jamier Johnson - Undisclosed (11/30) - Likely

• LG - Drew Evans - Achilles (11/09) - Out

Notre Dame

The Irish have been nothing but consistent for almost the entirety of the 2024 season, but their final game against USC was unique. For the first time all season, Notre Dame’s offense outperformed expectations while the defense underperformed. Despite the secondary single handedly ending the game with back to back length-of-field pick-6’s, they struggled in a way that we haven’t seen this year, while the rush defense held USC under 200 yards as a team. Notre Dame’s then 1st ranked secondary was only surrendering 139.5 yards per game, but shockingly allowed USC’s Jayden Maiava to toss a career high 360 yards and 3 touchdowns. It was a bit rattling to see the defense’s strong suit all year become a legitimate liability, while simultaneously seeing the offense fire on all cylinders both with and without Jeremiyah Love. Notre Dame’s 3-headed snake of Leonard, Love, and Price racked up 258 yards and 3 touchdowns while not being forced to throw all that much. Al Golden and the defense need to figure out how to avoid a repeat of their struggles against the Trojans and not rely on sheer talent to bail them out again. That strategy wont work against an objectively superior Hoosiers squad with a lot more to play for.

Marcus Freeman and his squad have had 3 weeks to get healthy and prepare for this matchup, and they’ll need it. This is statistically the best defense and best offense the Irish have faced all year, and they’ll need to be sharper against Indiana than they were against USC. Even with a clear talent advantage, we’ve seen Notre Dame drop games they have no business losing, BUT - if Freeman and these players have earned anything from fans, it's credit and faith that they will never allow another NIU. This team will not be unprepared, they won't lose their focus, they won't be rattled easily, and they won’t shrink on the biggest stage the Irish have seen in recent memory.

Notre Dame Injury Report

• HB Jeremiyah Love - Knee (11/30) - Likely

• DL Howard Cross III - Left Ankle (11/16) - Likely

• LB Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa - Knee (11/25) - Out

The Matchup

Of the four 1st round matchups, oddsmakers have pegged the battle for Indiana as the closest. Notre Dame holds a slim 1 possession edge even with home field advantage. That shows how closely the CFP committee thinks these two teams are.

For the points, predictions think it'll be well under the average for two teams averaging roughly 40 points a piece. Keep in mind, weather forecasts are projecting sub 30º F temperatures with winds of up to 13 MPH and possible snow flurries for this night game, which could have a noticeable effect on production, explosiveness, and speed. That, along with two defenses allowing less than 15 PPG each is likely why the 51.5 mark is so low.

Indiana has hit the over in 3 of their last 4 games and in 10-straight road games, while the Irish have hit the over in 4 of their last 5.

Notre Dame’s Defense V. Indiana’s Offense

This is likely the most separation between these two teams.

The dynamic of this matchup is strength V. strength between Notre Dame’s secondary and Indiana’s pass game. QB Kurtis Rourke has been prolific through the air this year, tossing nearly 3,000 yards with 27 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions. He’s been able to do this with a significantly more productive and talented wide receiver room than the Irish. Rourke’s top 2 targets have been Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. who’ve combined for nearly 1,500 yards and 14 touchdowns. They’ve accomplished this with roughly 1/3 of their plays coming from the RPO, where Rourke completes nearly 80% of his throws.

While impressive, these stats have come against pretty weak competition, and the only two times Indiana has played a tough opponent (OSU, Michigan) they struggled mightily on offense. In those two games, the Hoosiers gave up 9 total sacks while only surrendering 9 sacks across their 10 other games. When tested, the Indiana line can't protect Rourke long enough to let him be comfortable and do his thing. The key to disrupting this offensive is getting them out of sync. That means applying similar pressure on the line and with perimeter blitzes to force errant throws and leave it up to your NFL talent in the secondary to make them pay. The Hoosiers face an Irish defense leading the nation in total takeaways this season with 28, 17 from interceptions, highlighted by another nation high 5 pick-6’s. That's a huge obstacle for an offensive unit that has only shined against weaker competition.

If you think Indy can lean on their ground game in this one, you’ve got another thing coming. The Hoosiers posted a dismal 40 yards rushing against the Wolverines and only 83 against the Buckeyes. Admittedly, Notre Dame’s defensive line is not nearly as dominant as either of those two squads, but their secondary is better than both, and the only two teams to record over 200 yards on the ground against the Irish were Army and Navy. Is Indiana’s rushing attack better than either of those teams? Not even close.

Indiana’s Offense - Players to Watch

Notre Dame’s defense is statistically elite across the board and average in run defense, while the Hoosiers offense is only elite in their points scored per game while being average everywhere else. At its simplest, do you take an elite group with a single average aspect, or do you take a balanced yet average offense. When considered in conjunction with Indiana’s preference to pass, the cold weather, and Notre Dame’s strongest unit being their secondary, the choice is clear. Notre Dame’s defense has no reason to not win this head-to-head. They may not rag-doll the Hoosiers like they did countless other teams this year, but they will almost assuredly take care of business. 

Advantage: Soft Notre Dame

Notre Dame’s Special Teams V. Indiana’s Special Teams

This head-to-head has a lot more to do with Notre Dame than it does Indiana. The Irish have struggled mightily for the 2nd half of the season, and have dropped to dead last in field goal percentage with a pitiful 44.4%. By the grace of God, Notre Dame hasn't had to rely on making field goals to win games, but against Indiana, it's very possible the game hinges on both team's ability to do so. For Indiana, they're putting up an excellent 90% field goal accuracy behind a single, consistent kicker in that of Nicolas Radicic. Thankfully, the Hoosiers prolific scoring offense has been so successful, Radicic has only needed to line up 10 field goals thus far, while the Irish kicking staff has attempted a combined total of 18, making only 8.

When looking at punting statistics, the Irish lag behind significantly in average punt distance at 83rd, but are saved by stellar punt coverage that rockets them to 32nd in net punt average. The Hoosiers are the opposite. They get more distance on their punts, placing 31st, but surrender so much yardage that they drop back to 97th in net average. Notably, Indiana's biggest struggle in the Ohio State game was their punt game specifically. They both muffed a punt snap to turn the ball over and gave up a punt return for a touchdown.

Special Teams - Players to Watch

All in all, Indiana is weakest on their punt coverage while the Irish are literally the worst at getting the ball through the uprights. Outside of that, these special teams groups are essentially the same, but the fact that the Irish kicking game is so much worse than Indiana's gives the Hoosiers the leg up here. In a game with elite defenses and potential wind and snow, special teams may be the most important aspect of this game. If it comes down to a field goal or two, Indiana has the objective advantage.

Advantage: Soft Indiana

Notre Dame’s Offense V. Indiana’s Defense

This is the game’s true tossup. Notre Dame’s offense is elite on the ground, led by one of the game’s most effective mobile QB’s in Riley Leonard and one of the nation’s top run threats in Jeremiyah Love. The Hoosiers haven't met a running back this lethal or a QB this versatile much less both at the same time with Jadarian Price lurking in the shadows to rip off another massive scoring rush.

The Irish ground game will be the most challenging group the Hoosiers have seen all year, but they’ll lean on the best statistical defensive front the Irish have faced. Notre Dame is 3rd in all of college football in yards per carry with 6.3, while Indiana’s defense ranks 2nd in YPC allowed with 2.5. If you follow the numbers only, this should essentially be a wash, both squads will play strength V. strength on the ground and it’ll ultimately come down to which of these relatively untested groups is legit, and which is a pretender.

As for the passing game, the picture is a bit blurry. The Irish began the season through the air in embarrassing fashion, and were truly a one dimensional offense at one point. But after an entire season of criticism and muffled applause, credit needs to be given to Riley Leonard. The transfer QB suffered an injury prior to the season, and got his very first taste of his new school, OC, and teammates in week 1 with no spring ball. Of course he didn’t come out looking like prime Duke Riley, and that's to be expected. For the 10 games following the NIU game, Riley and Mike Denbrock have been on a consistent positive trajectory with the passing game, all while continuing to contribute and dominate on the ground. Thus, they’ve earned the benefit of the doubt and it's unlikely they play outside themselves and lose this game through the air. The only issue is, if Notre Dame HAS to throw the ball to win, this game, can they? It’s not that Riley Leonard can't, it's that we haven't seen it - yet.

Indiana’s Defense - Players to Watch

The Hoosiers defense is statistically just as good as Notre Dame’s defense, ranking top 10 almost across the board, but they gave up 38 points to their only ranked opponent of the year and allowed 115 yards to Ohio State’s average ground game. That's with a struggling OSU offensive line compared to an impressive and now seasoned Notre Dame line that has allowed this running game to flourish. This head-to-head will come down to the line game, and who wins in the trenches. If Indiana can't play better than they did against the Buckeyes, they’re in for a long day on defense. If Notre Dame runs the ball how they want to, they won't need to pass, but if the game comes down to their ability to beat Indy through the air, it's a toss up. Odds are, the Irish rushing attack will be just a bit too much for the Hoosiers D to contain, making Notre Dame’s pass attempts easier and more effective when called.

Advantage: Even

Prediction

This is arguably the most difficult prediction of Notre Dame's 2024 season. 

This is each team’s toughest opponent of the year, with the highest stakes they’ve seen on the biggest stage either has played on. The Hoosiers are looking to keep their dream season alive and continue to put up the program’s most historical year ever in defiance of their critics.

Conversely, Notre Dame stands at a crossroads. For years, the program has struggled to advance from college football’s 1B tier to the 1A tier of elites, and this is the closest they’ve been to the classic Notre Dame teams of their storied past. 

Which of these two Indiana schools will leave Notre Dame Stadium victors, and whose playoff dreams will die? There’s only one way to find out, and all we can do in the meantime is guess.

Both teams have faced relatively easy paths to this point, and have been proven both worthy and imperfect. This game will ultimately come down to which team wants it more and which team can dictate the game they want to play. The Hoosiers are 100% capable of winning this game - that’s why they’re in the playoff, but is it probable? No, but a Notre Dame win is.

An Indiana win is contingent on the abnormal happening - the exception. Notre Dame would have to come out and have Leonard, Love, and Price all forget how to run while the Irish defense delivers an identical performance to the USC slip up. If you pick Indiana for this game, you're not betting the Hoosiers are the better team, you’re betting you're the first team in 10 games to change the identity of this Notre Dame team, and that seems far more unlikely than the Irish maintaining their status quo.

Notre Dame’s game plan comes down to this:

• Run the ball early, often, and well

• Pressure Indiana's QB and win the turnover battle

• Don’t start slow.

These three keys are not aspirational, this is what the Irish have consistently demonstrated they can do with relatively little trouble.

Marcus Freeman and the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame will leave “The House That Rockne Built” with their 13th win on Friday Night, and gift the Irish faithful one extra gift this year.

Look for:

• Notre Dame’s defense - collects  2+ sacks

• Notre Dame’s defense - grabs 2+ interceptions

• Jeremiyah Love - records 150+ rushing yards for the 1st time this season

• Riley Leonard - records 100+ rushing yards 

• Notre Dame’s kicking unit - doesn’t miss a field goal

Win: (12-1)

ND: 31 - 23 :IND

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