This week, the No. 10 Fighting Irish play host to the 1-8 Florida State Seminoles for a 7:30 pm primetime showdown in South Bend. If the time slot for this matchup doesn't tip you off - this game was supposed to be a late-season clash between heavyweight CFP contenders, but it looks much different come game week. Instead of a chance to further build their playoff resume, Notre Dame will face a lose-lose situation; lose and their postseason dreams are done, or win anything other than a double-digit blowout and risk falling out of the top 12. Although the opponent is different, this is a challenge Marcus Freeman’s 2024 Irish have faced every week since NIU. Focus on what's in front of you and take care of business.
Here’s everything you need to know ahead of Saturday’s game.
Photo by The Irish Tribune
Florida State
Florida State ended the 2023 season in utter disappointment and embarrassment. After star QB Jordan Travis went down with a season-ending injury in their 11th game, the Seminoles limped through their final regular season game and the ACC Championship to go 13-0 but were snubbed out on a CFP spot before getting absolutely dismantled by UGA in the Orange Bowl, 63-3. Coach Norvell faced a mass exodus of talent, losing 15 starters from the 2023 squad across both sides of the ball, 9 of which were selected in the NFL draft. They ranked 83rd in returning production but dominated in the portal, pulling in the 7th-best class according to 247Sports. Transfer highlights included QB DJ Uiagalelei from Oregon State, DE
Marvin Jones Jr. from UGA, WR Jalen Brown from LSU, and both WR Malik Benson and RB Roydell Williams from Alabama.
Unfortunately, Mike Norvell and the Seminoles followed that embarrassing end to 2023 and an equally embarrassing start to 2024 with a week-0 loss to Georgia Tech in Ireland. The No. 10 Seminoles touted what many considered one of the best defensive lines in the country and a group of serious talent coming in on the offensive side of the ball. Yet shockingly, the Yellow Jackets controlled the Seminoles’ offense all game, holding them to less than 100 yards on the ground, less than 200 through the air, and 0 passing touchdowns. It was a shocking opening week loss for FSU, but it was a close-fought 3-point game that many felt would be the floor of their season. They were wrong.
FSU arrives in South Bend amidst a five-game losing streak and just a single win from September. Even as questions swirl around the future of the program and Head Coach Mike Norvell, the reeling team and fanbase have something to prove and are looking to salvage what they can of this season.
FSU Injury Report:
● LB Justin Cryer - Out
● C Maurice Smith - Questionable
● OT Robert Scott Jr. - Questionable
● CB Fentrell Cypress II - Questionable
Notre Dame
The Irish are coming off a 51-14 shellacking of Navy, which moved them up to No. 8 in the polls before a much-needed BYE week that unfortunately dropped them back to No. 10. Despite the drop, Notre Dame made the 12-team cut in the first round of CFP rankings as the No. 10 seed, and they’re looking to close the regular season strong.
The Navy game was an excellent continuation of what Freeman and fans alike have been looking for from the team. The defense continued its elite form, containing one of the country's most efficient and prolific offenses while racking up six turnovers. The offense was even more encouraging, maintaining their dominance on the ground with four touchdowns and 265 yards, led by Love with 102 and Leonard with 83. Best of all, Leonard stayed consistent and didn’t regress in the passing game, tossing 2 touchdowns for 173 yards. The Irish will need to replicate the same level of dominance against their final four opponents, and that starts with Florida State.
Notre Dame Injury Report:
● Defensive Back Tae Johnson - Available
● Kicker Mitch Jeter - Questionable
● Edge Defender Loghan Thomas - Questionable - Right hamstring from the Navy game.
The Matchup
Notre Dame's Defense vs. FSU's Offense
The Seminoles lost DJ Uiagalelei after only five games, which was a blow for their dual-threat
offense. However, backup Brock Glenn stepped up and immediately threw the second-most yards in a game for the Seminoles all year against then No. 11 Clemson. The passing improvement helps FSU’s fledgling offense a bit, but they’ve struggled mightily on the ground thus far, averaging only 76.1 YPG, nearly dead last in the entire FBS at 132nd. Much of their rushing struggles can be attributed to their offensive line, which has been dealing with injury issues all year and has given up a staggering 30 sacks in 9 games.
FSU Offense - Players to watch:
Through all these issues, the Seminoles have only scored 16 touchdowns this season and will
struggle in both aspects of the game against Notre Dame. On paper, this is a talented Seminoles offense, but if they do indeed have a second win in them this year, it's not going to come against this elite Irish defense. This will hands down be the best defense FSU has and will face this year, and the Irish will lean on their strength to stifle FSU’s broken system.
Advantage: Strong Notre Dame
Notre Dame's Offense vs. FSU's Defense
Florida State’s defense has struggled greatly all season but isn’t completely broken. They’ve had particular success getting to the quarterback, with 22 sacks through 9 games, better than Notre Dame’s 18, but have only snagged 2 interceptions all season long. The defensive line and rushing attack are the strongest aspects of their defense, so the Irish can either matchup strength-for-strength on the ground or make this the game where they really let things fly through the air. While there's a lot of risk to leaning on the passing game, there’s some confidence that if the Irish were forced to, they could.
FSU Defense - Players to Watch:
The Irish offense has been the weakest part of this team all season, but the narrative surrounding it has transformed, and that’s a credit to both the players and coaching staff. The Irish offense has been prolific on the ground all season, including from dual-threat Riley Leonard, but the Irish passing game was truly exposed for fans and the nation in the NIU shocker at home. Since then, Leonard and Denbrock have diligently transformed a completely run-dominant and pass-inept offense into a better-balanced attack that's won them six straight games. Over the last several weeks, the key has been not regressing through the air, at least maintaining its progress from week to week and sometimes gradually improving. Leonard and Denbrock have found a groove and likely won't deviate from their dink-and-dunk passing strategy, and a weak defense like FSU’s is the perfect opportunity to further hone what makes the Irish offense work while testing their new limits.
Advantage: Leaning Notre Dame
Prediction
The Irish have the leg up on both sides of the ball, especially on defense, so the odds of the Seminoles scoring their way to a win is very slim. If FSU has a shot at beating the Irish, it’ll have to come from winning the defensive battle over an Irish offense that would prefer to run the ball most of the time. The last few weeks have shown that the Irish can be competent through the air and that they’ve evolved from their one-dimensional attack, but if FSU can use their talent on defense to force the Irish into throwing, there may be a chance the Irish struggle.
Unfortunately, it's as simple as this: Florida State is just completely outmatched. Their talent, hope to play spoiler, and experienced Head Coach just aren’t enough to even the playing field. Even if the Irish struggle to pass the ball or start slow, there’s little evidence showing they could lose this game. If this was in Tallahassee, FSU would at least have something going in their favor, but being in chilly South Bend during November only adds to what’s an insurmountable obstacle for the Seminoles. The Irish should dominate this game from start to finish and once again use their weak competition to further add to their CFP resume. Frankly, they can't afford anything less.
Look for:
● Notre Dame’s defense - holds FSU under 100 yards rushing
● Notre Dame’s defense - records 2+ sacks
● Notre Dame’s defense - records 1+ interceptions
● Notre Dame’s defense - doesn’t allow a single touchdown
● Jeremiyah Love - 1+ rushing touchdowns & 100+ yards
● Riley Leonard - 100+ rushing yards
Win (8-1)
ND: 45-9 :FSU
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