In a clash straight out of the history books, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the Army Black
Knights are set to renew their longtime rivalry for the 52nd time this Saturday - this time “outlined by a blue-gray” November sky. The first game of the series came back in 1913, when the Irish stole a win at West Point, eventually snowballing into one of the most consequential and publicized rivalries of the era.
Photo by The Irish Tribune
Unfortunately, recent decades have seen the matchup diminish in relevance and competitiveness, ultimately becoming more of a nod to tradition than a legitimate heavyweight matchup. In that time, Notre Dame compiled an impressive 39-8-4 series lead over Army, and currently holds a dominant 15 game win streak dating back to 1965.\
Ironically, Army was a last minute addition to Notre Dame’s schedule this year, only materializing in February of 2024 after a scheduling conflict with the Miami Hurricanes left the Irish with a week 13 vacancy. Coincidentally, 2024 marked the 100th anniversary of the 1924 Notre Dame-Army bout that coined the legendary “four horsemen” moniker, and presented a perfect opportunity to capitalize on the shared history. The game was named the 12th iteration of Notre Dame’s Shamrock Series, and in keeping with tradition, would be held at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx for a 24th time. The Irish hold a 15-5-3 lead over the Black Knights at Yankee Stadium alone.
The last minute addition was met with little fanfare and criticized as a strength-of-schedule hit, but would end up becoming one of Notre Dame’s biggest opportunities of the season. This is the first time since 1958 that both teams face off while ranked, and the first time in decades this rivalry promises more than tradition and nostalgia. Everything is on the line for both squads this week.
Here’s everything you need to know ahead of Saturday’s game.
Army
Head Coach Jeff Monken is in his 11th season with Army, having taken over in 2014 after making his name in coaching with Georgia Southern. In almost 11 years, Monken has gone 79-55 including four 9+ win seasons and only three losing records.
The Black Knights have won 9 straight games in 2024, 13 if you count the end of 2023, and they’re looking to become the first 10-0 football team in school history. Army has dominated in nearly every game so far, but the main detractor from their success has been their ridiculously weak schedule. It's a combination of both weak competition and terrible records:
● Lehigh (7-3 ) - W - 42-7
● at Florida Atlantic (2-8) - W - 24-7
● Rice (3-7) - W - 37-14
● at Temple (3-7)- W - 42-14
● at Tulsa (3-7) - W - 49-7
● UAB (2-8) - W - 44-10
● East Carolina (6-4) - W - 45-28
● Air Force (3-7) - W - 20-3
● North Texas (5-5) - W - 14-3
As you can see, only two of their nine opponents have a winning record, one is an FCS school, and the closest thing to a name brand team on their resume is Rice or Temple. Despite that, they’ve won every game by double digits, and have only trailed once all year long (North Texas).
The Black Knights didn’t enter the top-25 rankings until their sixth straight win, earning the No. 23 spot heading into Eastern Carolina. Since then, Monken’s squad has inched their way up to No. 19 in the polls, becoming one of only three undefeated teams left standing. Army has already secured their spot in the AAC Championship against Tulane, but a massive upset win over the Irish could potentially help them jump Boise State and secure the lone Group-of-5 CFP bid. The Black Knights are determined, underestimated, and within reach of success for the first time in recent memory.
Army is statistically elite across the board and on both sides of the ball, but the question remains - will that success transfer to elite competition like Notre Dame? Maybe, maybe not, but one thing is for sure - win or lose, this isn’t your dad’s Army football team.
Army Injury Report
● K Anderson Britton - Knee - Out
Notre Dame
Notre Dame extended its win streak to 8 in a row with a 35-14 win over Virginia last week
They started hot, recovering a Chris Tyree muff on the opening kickoff, leading to a Jeremiyah Love rushing touchdown shortly after. That's when things started to look shaky. The Irish followed that quick opening score with 4 straight punts, and didn’t score again until late in the 2nd quarter on a 9-play 88-yard drive ending with a passing TD from Leonard to Jayden Harrison. The Irish offense closed out the first half with two more scores after back to back UVA turnovers that set them up with short yardage.
On the other hand, the Irish defense was stifling. They forced a turnover on downs, recovered a fumble, pulled in 3 interceptions, and held the Cavs scoreless - all in the first half. Notre Dame entered halftime with an imperfect but comfortable 28-0 lead.Notre Dame’s first drive of the second half ended with a Riley Leonard interception, but Jeremiyah Love saved the day on the next possession, ripping off a 76 yard touchdown run to put the Irish up 35-0. After putting in backup QB Tony Muskett, UVA finally got something going and tacked on two scores in garbage time to make the final score more respectable. Although the Irish won comfortably, it was objectively their least impressive and sloppiest game in several weeks. It was the first time since the Georgia Tech game that the Irish offense showed nearly
no improvement. Leonard threw his 4th interception, the receiving core dropped multiple crucial balls, two length of the field Irish scores were called back due to penalties, along with 9 total penalties for 89 yards. Ultimately, it was a less than impressive win over a 5-4 middle of the pack ACC team. It’ll be a heck of a lot harder for Notre Dame to win if they bring that lack of effort and focus against a better, more disciplined team.
Speaking of the postseason, the Irish moved up another 2 spots to No. 6 in the CFP polls after losses from Tennessee and BYU, good enough for the 8th seed in the bracket. As the 8th seed, Notre Dame would face off with the 9th seed, currently Alabama, and the winner would advance to face the 1st seed, currently the Oregon Ducks. This is the highest bracket placement the Irish have earned so far, and the first time they’d be hosting a 1st round home game.
Notre Dame Injury Report
● DL Howard Cross III - Left Ankle - Questionable
● RB Devyn Ford - Right Groin - Questionable
The Matchup
Notre Dame is about a 2 touchdown favorite over Army and the over/under shows Vegas thinks this will be a lower scoring event. This is likely due to Army’s run dominant offense leading to fewer overall possessions, and possibly Notre Dame’s failure to match their 38.0 PPG mark against UVA.
Army is 7-2 against the spread this year, and they’re scoring 35.2 points per game while the Irish hold opponents to 11.4 PPG. Notre Dame is 8-2 against the spread this season, scoring slightly more than the Black Knights with 38.0 PPG, while Army has been holding opponents to 10.3 PPG. This is a tough one to call as both teams have incredibly similar numbers when put head to head, but a performance similar to the UVA or Georgia Tech games, like 31-14, would hit the over rather easily. The spread is a bit tricker and will come down to how efficient the Irish offense is with the ball, and how stark the time of possession difference is.
Notre Dame's Defense vs. Army's Offense
To continue the refrain from almost the entire season - Notre Dame’s defense is elite.
Army will be the third option-derivative offense the Irish defense faces this year, but unlike Georgia Tech and Navy, the Black Knights have the most traditional triple option scheme thus far. And it shows - with Army notching the top spot for run frequency while also placing dead last (134th) in pass frequency. The Black Knights are a one-dimensional offense, but they’re surgical on the ground. Army isn't looking to surprise opponents with deep passes and shotgun sets like Navy, you know what they’re going to do, and they know they’re not fooling you. That's how confident these guys are on the ground - here’s what we do, can you stop it? So far, no one’s been able to.
Army tops the nation in both yards per rush (6.2) and yards per game with (334.9), in large part due to their offensive line, whose allowed only 3 sacks all season and ranks 1st in run blocking grade, offensive line yards, stuff rate, and power success rate. Their offense also ranks 2nd in the nation for time of possession with 35:06 per game, while placing near the very bottom of the FBS (127th) in pace (plays per game). Not only is Army elite on the ground, but their ability to grind out 10+ minute drives and keep the ball away from opposing offenses is a prime example of their ability to control the pace of the game and force other teams out of their comfort zone.
While not identical, Army and Navy present similar challenges for Notre Dame, but the Black Knights are distinctly different. QB Bryson Daily and his partner in crime, RB Kanye Udoh, are an elite tandem on the ground. Much like Notre Dame’s QB-RB combo, these two backfield threats have amassed over 1,000 rushing yards and 21 TDs together, keeping opposing defenses honest with their triple-option threat. Daily matches up closely with Navy’s QB Blake Horvath, and presents a similar type of challenge to this Irish defense. Horvath is definitely more of a passer, in both frequency and skill, whereas Daily is noticeably better on the ground. The Irish got a huge helping hand from Horvath’s 3 turnovers during their matchup, but they won’t be able to count on Daily to hand them this one so easily.
One of the biggest question marks on Notre Dame’s defense will be the potential absence of D-line anchor Howard Cross III. He suffered an ankle injury during the Florida State game, and was ruled out against UVA. As of right now, he’s listed as questionable for this week's matchup, and it's unclear if the coaching staff will push to get him back on the field, or air on the side of caution and keep him out until USC/the postseason. Notre Dame’s defense has endured an onslaught of season ending injuries this year, but they’ve managed to adjust on the fly while still maintaining their elite performance. In his absence, Junior DL Donovan Hinish has picked up the slack, breaking out with 9 tackles and 3 sacks over the last 2 matchups. If the Irish are without Cross again, they should be able to maintain a similar level of dominance up front, but against a prolific rushing attack like Army, the more help the better.
Army’s stats and production are hard to ignore, but the quality of their opponents must not be
ignored. Notre Dame is far and away the best defense the Black Knights will face this year, and the talent level objectively favors the Irish. Army’s only chance to win this game is by playing their A+ game, while Notre Dame drops the ball. All the Irish defense needs to do is come up with a few early stops to put the Black Knights behind the 8-ball. Either they won’t have enough time on the clock to mount a comeback win, or they change their gameplan out of desperation and expose themselves by taking risks or relying on the pass. Notre Dame gets the edge here pretty comfortably, and after a few series should be able to contain a predictable offense.
Army's Offense - Players to Watch:
Advantage: Strong Notre Dame
Notre Dame's Special Teams vs. Army's Special Teams
Notre Dame’s special teams unit has been struggling lately, and the kicking game has been all over place since Mitch Jeter’s hip injury against Stanford. The Senior kicker was ruled out for the Georgia Tech and Navy matchups but returned to action against UVA, where he went 4/4 on XPs but was physically unable to attempt either of Notre Dame’s 2 FGs . After watching Jeter’s 4 XPs kicks against Virginia, it was abundantly clear he’s still not fully recovered. In his stead, Sophomore kicker Marcello Diomede lined up for a 56-yard try, his first and only attempt of the season, but missed. Junior kicker Zac Yoakam followed with a 36-yard attempt but also missed, dropping to 2/5 on FG attempts for the year. When healthy, Jeter was a solid 31/31 on XPs, but has struggled with FGs. In 8 appearances, Jeter has gone 6/9 on FGs, including the ridiculous 62-yard miss against NIU as time expired. Collectively, Notre Dame’s 3 kickers have recorded a disappointing 8/15 on FGs through 10 games.
Army’s kicking game has been the complete opposite. Senior kicker Trey Gronotte is a perfect 44/44 on XPs and 5/5 on FGs this year; knocking in 4/4 from 30-39 yards and 1/1 from 20-29 yards. Notre Dame holds a slight edge over the Black Knights in both kickoff and punt return yards, while Army averages slightly more yardage on net average punt yards. Neither special teams unit holds an outright advantage over the other, but the uncertainty surrounding Notre Dame’s kicking situation is what separates these two. Moving forward with a 3-man kicking committee that's combined for just over 50% FG accuracy is too big a liability to ignore. Jeter’s recovery timeline is still unknown, but with only 2 games left in the regular season and potential playoff games on the horizon, the Irish need a healthy, dependable kicker they can rely on. Army gets the edge here because of health and consistency.
Advantage: Soft Army
Notre Dame's Offense vs. Army's Defense
If there’s a weak point on this 2024 Irish squad, it's the offense - specifically the passing game. Had these two teams met in week 3 or 4, there's a legitimate chance the Irish offense loses this game. But over the last 4-5 games, Mike Denbrock and Riley Leonard have gradually transformed this offense from completely one-dimensional to relatively balanced. Nearly every criticism of Notre Dame’s new offense has been levied at the passing game, and as discontent grew louder and louder, it began to overshadow the elite rushing production coming out of the Irish backfield. Between the two of them, QB Riley Leonard and RB Jeremiyah Love have combined for over 1,300 yards and 25 touchdowns on the ground, along with 15 touchdowns through the air. The Irish rank 12th in rushing YPG at 216.7, more than 100 yards less than Army’s 334.9 mark. Yet it’s Notre Dame’s much criticized passing attack (199.0 YPG) that pushes them to 415.7 total YPG, just behind Army’s 419.9. The Irish have actually had a pretty well balanced offense in the 2nd half of this season, and their easiest path to victory is establishing the run and Leonard’s short/midrange dink
and dunk passing attack early. The Irish can’t afford another 1/12 day on 3rd down conversions like they had against UVA. Possessions will be few and far between, so capitalizing on nearly every drive with some kind of points is crucial.
The Black Knights defense has been statistically on par with the Irish all season. Army has a slight advantage in YPG allowed, ranking 5th to Notre Dame’s 6th, and ranks 2nd in PPG allowed to Notre Dame’s 3rd. The only true separation between these offenses is rushing defense. The Black Knights are 3rd in rushing yards allowed with a ridiculous 82.6 YPG, whereas the Irish are 44th with 126.2. Army’s focus should be to make Riley Leonard and the Irish offense uncomfortable, beginning by taking away the short passing game. That's where Leonard and Denbrock begin each week and where Leonard builds his confidence for the rest of the matchup. As we’ve seen before, taking away the passing game lets opposing defenses cheat up and focus on Notre Dame’s run, making Leonard’s legs both less effective and less surprising.
Although Army’s defense looks just as good as Notre Dame’s on paper, their weak strength of
schedule makes it hard to know just how legit it really is. The Irish are above and beyond the best offense Army will face this year, and the matchup will ultimately come down to just how effective the Irish ground game will be against a Black Knight defense who specializes in stopping it. Look for Riley Leonard’s legs to be the difference here.
Army Defense - Players to Watch:
Advantage: Soft Notre Dame
Prediction
Once again, the Irish have a clear talent, size, and skill advantage on both sides of the ball in this matchup, but that doesn't make this a guaranteed win. Both teams have a ton to play for, and that's really the only thing that calls for any caution. Notre Dame had the edge over NIU in every possible way, but a lack of focus, and a sense of complacency nullified it all. NIU just flat out wanted it more, and this Army team has enough at stake and enough to gain to out “want” the Irish. Unlike many of the teams Notre Dame has faced this year, Army isn’t looking to just “stay competitive” or merely spoil Notre Dame’s CFP hopes - they have postseason aspirations of their own. With a win, the Irish would extend their win streak over the Black Knights to 16 straight, remain undefeated in all 12 Shamrock Series games, and be one step closer to a CFP bid. As long as they don’t get sloppy and overlook the Black Knights in anticipation of their season finale against USC, Notre Dame should take care of business once again and move to 10-1.
Look for:
● Notre Dame’s defense - forces 2+ turnovers
● Notre Dame’s defense - records 2+ sacks
● Notre Dame’s defense - allows only a single touchdown
● Mitchell Evans - catches 1 touchdown pass for the 3rd straight game
● Riley Leonard - records 150 rushing yards for the 1st time this year
Win: (10-1)
ND: 38 - 13 :Army
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