After eliminating Georgia in round two of the College Football Playoffs, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish will be heading from South Bend to South Florida to take on the Nittany Lions of Penn State at Miami's Hardrock Stadium. Let's take a deep dive into the film room.
Photo by The Irish Tribune
The Sugar Bowl vs UGA was Notre Dame's biggest victory in over three decades, and yet it once again feels that there is some goal post shifting in terms of Notre Dame's outlook going forward. Yes, Georgia was without their starting quarterback, yes ND only scored one offensive touchdown, and YES it was still as impressive of a win as any thus far during the playoff. The ten points UGA scored tied their season low total, and although Notre Dame did not light up the score board, they proved when push comes to shove, they are as tough and athletic as any team in the country. Can they continue to lean on their formula of running the ball and playing outstanding defense, or will lack of offensive firepower catch up to them?
PSU Head Coach James Franklin has at times wore the label of not being able to win the "big game", but after back to back convincing victories in the playoff, he is one step away from a National Championship appearance and putting the college football world on notice. Penn State displays a lot of similarities to Notre Dame. They have an ultra talented running back duo, a stingy defense that finished top 10 in points allowed, and a QB that did not put up eye-popping numbers, but is efficient and can beat you in a variety of ways. They are playing with the confidence of a team that knows they belong in the final four, and with an extra two days to prepare, can they take their play up one more notch to hang with an opponent that is more talented than those they have faced in the playoff thus far?
When these two teams take the field on January 9th, it will be the first time facing off since 2007. James Franklin was still a coordinator at Kansas, and Marcus Freeman was racking up All-Big Ten honors as a linebacker at Ohio State. This is the biggest game of both of their careers to this point, and I expect them to have their teams fired up and ready to go. After watching Penn State film throughout the course of the season, these are the things you should keep your eye on during the 2025 Capital One Orange Bowl.
When Notre Dame is on Offense:
Not unlike Notre Dame, Penn State likes to run a lot of Cover-1. Using a single high safety look allows them to keep an extra defender in the box and create a numbers mismatch for run-heavy teams. For whatever reason, even though it was clear Penn State was loading up to stop Ashton Jeanty in the Fiesta Bowl in Round 1 , Boise State had their WR's in very tight splits which played into PSU's hands and allowed them to get more bodies around the LOS. Notre Dame is not a typical spread offense, but in order to be successful, Riley Leonard will have to connect on some shots outside the numbers and take advantage when Penn State is going 1 on 1 across the board. Could be a Beaux Collins game.
When I was breaking down the Penn State defense, their defensive backs reminded me a lot of Indiana's in terms of how aggressively they will come down and play the run. Just like I mentioned for that game, perimeter blocking from the ND receivers will once again be key. Jeremiyah Love's game-altering 98 yard touchdown run vs IU was sprung in part thanks to Beaux Collins staying on his assignment and pushing the corner inside allowing Love to work the sideline and use his speed. They will need that same effort for 60 minutes vs PSU.
Abdul Carter is the best edge defender I have seen on tape all year. True freshman left tackle Anthonie Knapp held up reasonably well against Georgia, but on a few snaps got beat by Jalon Walker and the left side of the O-line collapsed, forcing Leonard to get rid of the ball quicker than he wanted to. This will be Knapp's biggest test to date, but Carter is not the only threat on the defensive line for Penn State. Both their defensive tackles are very quick off the snap and have excellent upfield burst. Punch timing from the interior of Notre Dame's offensive line will be critical to creating run lanes and maintaining a pocket for Leonard to work from.
I was honestly surprised at how much Mike Denbrock tried to work Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price inside vs Georgia considering that was the strength of their run defense. In contrast, I think inside is exactly where you want to attack against PSU with gap concepts. They have an athletic front four who do a good job moving laterally, so trying to get outside on the edge might be a difficult task. Their defensive tackles are twitchy, but not the type of space eaters that Georgia had, so if ND can get a good push I think there are plays to be made inside.
Finishing up on the run game, PSU's linebackers are a talented group and flow quickly to the ball. At times though, their speed works against them, and they run themselves out of their run fits. Would be a good game to use some misdirection and mix in some zone schemes because there will be cutback lanes through middle of the defense. No. 0, Dominic DeLuca, is someone ND should target when the O-line is working up to second level blocks, as he has had some issues disengaging and making tackles from his linebacking spot. In both the Ohio State and Oregon games, when PSU needed to get off the field to have one more chance to tie/win the game, those teams were able to lean on the run game and close it out. If ND finds themselves in a similar spot, I believe the offensive line can wear them down and be the difference in moving on to the next round.
Penn State runs a lot of Man Coverage, but they will still mix in Zone and they are very successful doing it. Both their corners and safeties do a very good job of keying the quarterback's eyes and will jump underneath routes with no hesitation. They play with the confidence that their front four will get home, and quarterbacks will not be able to hang on to the ball too long which is why they can be aggressive. Riley Leonard can not stare down receivers in this match up, because the DB's for PSU are too fast and too good at creating game changing plays.
One area of weakness that consistently showed up on film, especially in the Big Ten Championship vs Oregon, is that when Penn State is in man coverage across the board, they tend to lose discipline on running backs out of the backfield and tight ends leaking out late. Notre Dame does not utilize their RB group a whole lot in the passing game, but Denbrock may want to consider using Aneyas Williams, who is generally the running back in on third downs, as an option for Riley Leonard out of the backfield in certain situations.
Players To Watch
No. 11 Abdul Carter - Carter was banged up against Boise State, and there is some speculation as to whether or not he will be ready to go in the Orange Bowl. If I am Notre Dame, I am operating under the belief he will 100% be lining up when the first whistle blows. It can not be overstated how much of a difference maker he is. A sure-fire first round pick in this years upcoming NFL draft, Carter is the total package as a pass rusher. He has elite athleticism for the position, and plays with incredible bend, allowing him to get underneath the pad level of offensive linemen and work a straight angle to the quarterback. PSU will play him on both sides of the line, and will also occasionally play him as an off the ball linebacker. Riley Leonard and the O-line for Notre Dame need to account for him at all times. The only way to counteract his level of speed is by making him think for a half a second longer than usual so he can't just react. Elements of the read option have been a staple of Notre Dame's play-calling this year, and in this game it would make more sense to run it right at Carter, forcing him to read the handoff and slow down his attack.
No. 1 Jaylen Reed - The Senior safety led the Nittany Lions in tackles in 2024, and is another player they like to move all over the field. A lot like Notre Dame uses Xavier Watts, Reed is a playmaker when being utilized as a robber, and handles run fits like a linebacker. Good tackler who plays fast, and will hang around the LOS looking to knife in and make tackles for loss. He will blitz off the edge, and I have seen him beat offensive tackles one on one. The Irish need to identify him pre-snap and not allow him to blow things up.
When Notre Dame is on Defense:
Motion, motion, and more motion. PSU Offensive Coordinator Andy Kotelnicki will rarely give you the same look more than a few times throughout the course of the game. Their tight end lines up as a fullback, running back and quarterback. They are constantly shifting their RBS, and at times will even line up their left guard in the slot before motioning him in before the snap. In other words, they give you a lot to think about before the center ever even snaps the ball. This is a major eye discipline/mental processing test for the Fighting Irish. They run wildcat with multiple players and the linebackers for ND can not get lost in all the shuffling because Penn State has one of the biggest weapons in all of college football they will look to work the ball to in a variety of ways in tight end, Tyler Warren.
As the year has gone on, PSU Quarterback Drew Allar has gotten more comfortable using his legs in both scramble drills and on designed runs. Although not as much as Notre Dame, they will work in a fair amount of read plays for Allar and even run a hybrid version of the triple option where he can hand it off, keep it himself or throw it late to a trailing "pitch man". He is a big bodied QB, and surprisingly hard to get down. When Notre Dame does get to him, they will need to wrap up. Notre Dame did a good job containing Gunner Stockton last week, and will need the same type of performance this time around.
If anyone can contend with Notre Dame for having the best running back tandem in the country, it is Penn State. Both Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen had 800+ rushing yards during the regular season, and have carried that success into the playoffs. When PSU's running game is at it's best, it is when they are running stretch zone concepts and allowing their backs to use their excellent vision in finding cutback lanes and picking up chunk yardage. Notre Dame will need to be able to set the edge and force things back inside to the linebackers, who need to play with disciplined gap control and not over pursue and get too wide.
Penn State does a lot of pulling, both in the run game and even in pass protection. Both guards can be exploited though, especially No. 71 Ioane Olaivavega, who plays with too high of a pad level and has a tendency to cross his feet and get off balance. The defensive line for Notre Dame needs to consistently play with violent hands and good leverage, as there will be plays to be made on the interior. The guards and center also do not do a great job passing off stunts, often being a step too late and allowing pressure. In my honest opinion, Georgia has a much better offensive line than Penn State, and Notre Dame was able to give them issues all day. I think this area is a true mismatch in Notre Dame's favor.
It is not profound to say that if you pressure a quarterback he will struggle. But when it comes to Drew Allar, he will at times perceive pressure that isn't there and leave the pocket too early, cutting off some of his reads. Al Golden has no issue bringing the house and trusting his defensive backs to cover on islands, but with Allar, running simulated pressures and dropping into zones may be even more effective. Allar sometimes struggles vs zone, not trusting his eyes and missing his window to hit receivers. His footwork also breaks down the minute he feels heat, drifting backwards and not stepping into his throws, leading to inaccurate balls which Notre Dame has feasted off of this year. If Notre Dame can present the type of issues for Penn State's offensive line that I think they can, Allar could have a rough night.
PSU's receivers have struggled to consistently get separation all year. Christian Gray and Leonard Moore have become quite the combination at corner for the Blue and Gold, and if they can be disciplined and stay in phase, I think this is a match up that they win more times than not.
Players To Watch
No. 44 Tyler Warren - The 2024 Mackey Award winner is as important to the PSU offense as Abdul Carter is to the defense. It is not hyperbole to say that they line Warren up at four or more positions in any given game. He has more than double the receptions of the next leading receiver, and has also rushed for four touchdowns and thrown for one as well. He excels at winning the point of attack on contested catches, using his size and length to box defenders out and high point the ball. Xavier Watts and Adon Shuler will most likely be the ones to have their numbers called when it comes to matching up with the nations best tight end. PSU loves to let him work the middle of the field off play-action passes, and he makes a living off quick out routes that he turns into bigger plays due to the fact he is extremely hard to bring down once he gets going downhill. Drew Allar shows major trust in him, and will not hesitate to target him even when he is well covered. The defensive backs for Notre Dame must locate the ball in the air and not just assume tight coverage is enough.
No. 10 - Nicholas Singleton - Both running backs for PSU are capable of hurting a defense, but Singleton specifically is the prototypical do-it-all back. Notre Dame will need to be locked in when on special teams, as they allow him to return kickoffs as well. He has vision, contact balance, and breakaway speed. In the passing game, he is not only a threat leaking into the flats or on screen passes, but they will also let him go vertical up the seam, so whoever is responsible for No. 10 can not get caught flat footed or just assume he is going to break off a shorter route, because he will make them pay. He is fairly good in pass protection when his assignment is obvious, but does at times get confused when there are extra rushers or a T/E stunt.
Additional Thoughts and Notes
SMU and Boise State did what they needed to do to make the playoffs, and this is not to take anything away from them. But it stands to reason, Penn State has had the most favorable path of any CFP team, having those two teams as their first and second round opponents. Notre Dame is coming off a dominating win over a team that was the national champion two of the last three seasons. It would be hard to argue that Notre Dame is not currently the more battle tested team, and I think in this type of bracket-style tournament, that goes a long way. The confidence that comes from knocking off a college football juggernaut like Georgia can not be overstated. They have proven they can beat the best in the country, now they just need to go out there and do it again.
Special teams have become an exciting part of Notre Dame football with all the wrinkles STC Marty Biagi seems to add on almost a weekly basis. In the Sugar Bowl, outside of a few unfortunate running into the kicker penalties on the opening drive, they once again shined. The kickoff return for touchdown by Jayden Harrison to open the second half gave the Fighting Irish too big of a cushion for Georgia to overcome, and the trick play ran on fourth down late in the game to draw Georgia offsides and allow Notre Dame to continue to kill clock was the icing on the cake. Add that to the fact that each week kicker Mitch Jeter gains confidence and rounds closer and closer into his old form, and this unit is truly becoming a threat to change any game at any time. One of the lone areas Penn State was below average this season was their own special teams. In a game that stars two teams with very similar profiles offensively and defensively, it would not shock me if the Notre Dame special teams unit plays the biggest part in advancing to a National Championship.
Notre Dame has turned the proverbial corner from being a good team, to being a great team. There are still questions that linger, all of which can be answered within the next couple of weeks. The 2025 Orange Bowl on paper has the makings of a classic game, with two teams that have been looking to break back through to the upper echelon of college football and recapture the glory days. I expect a highly competitive game for sixty minutes, and the winner will have had to have earned it. No one said it was going to be easy, which is why Notre Dame likes to choose hard.
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