After dropping their week two matchup against Northern Illinois, many assumed the ceiling for Notre Dame's 2024 season had been significantly lowered, and who could fault them? It's not often that teams that lose at home as big favorites to opponents from a perceived "lesser" conference go on to make much noise on the national level. Marcus Freeman and his staff, however, did not buy into these talking points. Week after week, since that September stumble, they have found a way to steady the ship and keep all of the Irish's big picture hopes squarely in view. Fast forward to now, and Notre Dame is just days away from hosting a home playoff game for the first time in history. Still, there are those outside of South Bend that point to that loss, combined with Notre Dame's schedule, to try and diminish their accomplishments and question if they truly belong in the hunt for a National Championship.
Photo by The Irish Tribune
Ironically, Notre Dame's opponent for their first round matchup has faced some of that same criticism. Indiana University, who will travel 200 miles up the road on December 20th, finished the regular season 11-1 under first year coach Curt Cignetti. No one had this team pegged as a playoff contender coming into the year, and by all accounts their season should be considered a huge success, but there are still those that look at their schedule and say "yeah, but". Indiana's lone loss came to Ohio State, one of the best teams in the country, and outside of them, they only faced three other teams that went on to become bowl eligible, which has led some to ask whether or not they are deserving of a shot to be crowned king when the dust of the regular season settled.
For two teams that still have plenty of doubters, this is where the rubber meets the road. I turned on the film from some of Indiana's biggest games of the year, broke it all down, and came away with the following thoughts on where Notre Dame can be successful, where they need to be careful, and ultimately how this game can be won. Let's dive into it.
When Notre Dame is on Offense:
Perimeter blocking will be key. Indiana's boundary defenders play very aggressively. Notre Dame fans have become accustomed to seeing Jeremiyah Love and/or Jadarian Price breaking big runs on a weekly basis, and for that to happen in this game, the wide receivers will need to stay engaged and get hands on corners and safeties.
Indiana's linebackers flow very fast off the snap, but sometimes too fast. This would be a great game to really utilize counter and misdirection runs. Their LB's are also much better against the run than they are in coverage, so I'd like to see Notre Dame pass on early downs against their base looks.
In short yardage and goal to go situations, they play down hill and aggressive, looking to overload vs the run. Blocking from inline tight ends will be critical here, and using play-action could result in some big plays.
Indiana likes to run stunts along their defensive line, so the offensive line needs to do a good job of communicating and passing off defenders to keep Riley Leonard upright.
IU likes to do a lot of rotating at the snap. Riley Leonard needs to vary the snap count, play with good vision, and take advantage of check downs when necessary. This is not a game to force anything in the passing game because a turnover could be the difference.
The cornerbacks for Indiana play a good amount of off coverage, and they tend to play with their hips open. Against this type of coverage/technique, short timing routes will be there to be had. If Leonard can be accurate, they will not need chunk plays through the air. Look for hitches, outs, and curls to be open. Sometimes taking what the defense gives you is the best offense.
Players to Watch
No. 8 CJ West - West is an absolute game changer along the defensive line. Plays with very good leverage and pad level, and the interior of the offensive line for the Irish will have their hands full getting him off his spot. He is a 315 pounds, but is still very quick and explosive. Notre Dame can not let him single handedly wreck their game plan.
No. 12 Terry Jones Jr - Jones Jr lines mostly lines up as a nickel/rover and they love to blitz him. He has great timing off the snap and if he is hovering around the line of scrimmage, Riley Leonard will need to get eyes on him and check protection. If he comes on a free rush, he can absolutely force a fumble and change the game.
When Notre Dame is on Defense:
Indiana's running backs both have very good contact balance. Notre Dame needs to rally to the ball every single play and not get lackadaisical with their tackling because they are big plays waiting to happen. They have combined for 22 touchdowns on the year.
Indiana utilizes a lot of RPO (run-pass options). The linebackers for the Irish will need to play with good eye discipline and not get drawn in too early, allowing receivers and tight ends to get behind them.
Barring impossible weather conditions, IU is going to take their vertical shots. Their wide receivers run A LOT of double moves. Notre Dame has an ultra talented, but ultra young cornerback room. This will be the most meaningful game in most of their college careers to this point, and sometimes that adrenaline and excitement makes you press to make a play. They need to focus on being patient and not getting flat footed and jumping the first move. That would force them to reach and gets handsy and in what could be a tight game, chunk plays through penalty yardage could play a big factor in the outcome.
This is a Howard Cross III and Rylie Mills game. The interior of IU's offensive line has had a hard time getting push vs the better defensive tackles they have faced this year. Pushing the pocket and getting the QB off his spot will always be a win for the defense, even if it does not result in a sack.
Indiana's O-line in general has had some communication issues handling blitzes as well as stunts along the defensive line. When they played IU, Ohio State did a very good job of having linebackers and safeties trigger late, and the offensive line rarely even got a hand on them on their way to the QB. Both offensive tackles have struggled vs speed rushes at different points this year. IU's running backs also do a sub-par job in pass protection, so if Al Golden wanted a week to bring some extra heat, this is the one. This is the area I feel is the biggest mismatch in Notre Dame's favor.
Players to Watch
No. 13 Elijah Surrat - The James Madison transfer leads Indiana in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. He does a excellent job of high pointing the ball and is a very patient, crisp route runner. As mentioned above, he likes to utilize double moves so regardless of what DB is matched up with him, they can not be too eager or they run the risk of giving up a big play.
No. 9 Kurtis Rourke - Rourke's first season in Bloomington was a very successful one. He has only thrown four interceptions on the year, and does a good job not putting the ball in harms way. He prefers to play from the pocket, but is more mobile than play calling would lead you to believe. They will never use him the way Notre Dame uses Riley Leonard, but in some critical spots this year (like closing out the game vs Michigan) they will call his number in the read option game, and it is something Notre Dame needs to be aware of.
Additional Thoughts and Notes
When I broke down the Ohio State game, it seemed to me like after some special teams blunders, the environment kind of got to them and that's when the game got out of control. That was their only big road game of the year. They got to face Michigan, Nebraska, and Washington all at home. Notre Dame, at times, has caught some flack for their home atmosphere not being as hostile as it could be. I think if they can recreate similar conditions to what OSU had, it could play a more pivotal role in the outcome than I would generally assign to it. Curt Cignetti has recently spoke about his displeasure in Indiana not getting to host a playoff game themselves, and I think he recognizes how much of a difference it can truly make when a team has to come into your territory and play against the 11 players on the field plus the 70-thousand in the stands.
I began this article by touching on the brutal Northern Illinois loss. That game put Notre Dame down, but not for the count. The Fighting Irish have essentially been in the playoffs since September 7th. Every single week they knew what was at stake, and one more loss at any point would have evaporated their chances into thin air. Playing with that win or you're out mentality for the better part of three months has really fortified the team to the point that this game vs Indiana will not be a new feeling for them, and I think that's a huge advantage. They know what it is to have their back against the wall, and based off how Marcus Freeman got everyone to respond since week 2, it isn't crazy to assert that the NIU debacle made this team better in the long run.
Notre Dame has a great opportunity in front of them. They undoubtedly deserve to be one of the 12 teams entering this expanded playoff, as do their opponents. For all intents and purposes, the slate has been wiped clean and everyone is 0-0 with the same goal in mind. I will save my final score prediction for later in the week, but I know I am looking forward to what this team can accomplish. It's been a grind of a season but, the grind does not stop here for the Fighting Irish.
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