Notre Dame is poised for a bounce-back game against Purdue. Here is a statistically in-depth preview of what to expect from the Boilermakers.
Photo by The Irish Tribune
2024 RECORD | 2024 PORTAL RANK | LAST GAME | SERIES SCORE |
(1-0) | 29th | ND - 27-13 (2021) | ND - 57-26-2 |
2023 RECORD | 2023 SOS | 2024 GAME +/- | 2024 SOS |
4-8 | 45th | 4.5 | 41st |
2023 OFFENSE YPG | 2023 OFFENSE PPG | 2023 DEFENSE YPG ALLOWED | 2023 DEFENSE PPG ALLOWED |
70th - 380.2 | 82nd - 23.9 | 67th - 382.1 | 98th - 30.4 |
2024 OFFENSE PASSING YPG | 2024 OFFENSE RUSHING YPG | 2024 DEFENSE YPG ALLOWED | 2024 DEFENSE PPG ALLOWED |
11th - 335.0 | 22nd 248.0 | 4th - 154.0 | T-1st - 0.0 |
GAME SPREAD | GAME SCORE +/- |
ND -8.5 | 47.5 |
Well, this isn’t where we thought Notre Dame would be at the start of week 3 - but here
we are. Within two weeks, Marcus Freeman secured the biggest win of his coaching career and immediately followed it with one of the worst losses in Notre Dame program history. A home opening loss as a 28 point favorite to a MAC team instantly changed Notre Dame’s 2024 outlook from a nearly guaranteed CFP lock with a cakewalk schedule, to the #18 spot in the polls with arguably the worst loss in college football this season. It's been a whirlwind to say the least.
The schedule has now transformed into a different kind of beast for the Irish, for better or
for worse. According to ESPN’s FPI rankings, Notre Dame has jumped from the 55th spot in
SOS up to the 23rd strongest. While this bodes well for Notre Dame’s CFP resume, it also
poses a new challenge for an Irish team farther from perfection than previously thought. As far
as this 2024 team is concerned, the season restarts this saturday; you don’t get credit for the TAMU win, you blew it with the NIU loss, but you do have a chance to recreate your team’s
identity. With a slightly stronger SOS and a different approach, Notre Dame’s only route to a
CFP spot is to win out, obviously, but while doing so, they need to show the country that they're the kind of threat we thought they were following week 1. Notre Dame’s “new season” begins this Saturday, as Freeman and the Irish march into West Lafayette, Indiana to face the Purdue Boilermakers. The battle for the Shillelagh Trophy resumes for only the 3rd time this decade, and the Irish hold an 8-game win streak (including vacated wins) along with a stout lead in the all time series record lead.
Purdue
This will be head coach Ryan Walters’ first time facing the Irish while with Purdue, and
only his second year with the program. He made his name as DC at the University of Illinois, building the 2022 Fighting Illini defense into the 2nd best squad in the country, 3rd in yards per play, 3rd in total defense, 1st in INTs, and 1st in turnover takeaways before he drew the attention of Purdue. Walters took over for Jeff Brohm, who left for Louisville following the 2022 season, and he inherited a rebuilding team. Predictably, his first year in 2023 showed that, and Purdue posted a rough 4-8 record, coming on the heels of an 8-6 season in 2022.
The offense was slightly more successful for Purdue last year, and it returns QB Hudson
Card who threw for 2,387 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions in 11 starts, along with
leading rusher Devin Mockobee. Although Walter’s is known for his defensive prowess, 2023 was brutal for Purdue on D, tied for 98th in the country for points allowed, giving up 30.4 points per game and surrendering 30+ points on 8 different occasions. The Boilermakers lost 3 key defensive players, all of whom were 4-star prospects, including the #12 portal player, CB Nylabd Green who went to UGA, #15 ranked DL Nic Scourton who left for Texas A&M and was considered the cornerstone of their D-line, and #48 ranked WR Deion Burks who left for
Oklahoma.
The Boilermakers handled Indiana State with no problems in week 1, winning 49-0
before their week 2 BYE. Purdue’s defense recorded the first Boilermaker shutout in 2 years
and only allowed 154 total yards to the Sycamores. They tallied 3 sacks along with 11 TFL, highlighted by DE Will Heldt who recorded 7 tackles, 2 sacks, and 3 TFL himself. The offense went off for 583 total yards, with 335 yards through the air, and another 248 yards on the ground. 5th-year QB and Texas transfer Hudson Card was stellar, leading the offense with 273 yards through the air and 4 touchdowns on a nearly perfect 24 of 25 attempts. Those 4 touchdown passes were tossed to 4 different targets; sophomore tight end Max Klare and sophomore receivers Leland Smith, Jaron Tibbs, and De’Nylon Morrissette. Purdue’s 3 rushing touchdowns were similarly spread out across 3 different backs, going to freshman Elijah Jackson, senior Reggie Love III, and freshman Jaheim Merriweather.
Coach Walters informed the public that UGA transfer receiver CJ Smith and CB Nyland
Green are still questionable for Saturday, but receiver Kam Brown, lineman Joe Anderson, and LT Corey Stewart are expected to play. The key for Purdue’s offense will be giving Card enough time to throw the longball downfield, allowing their spread offense to open things up underneath for the tight ends and running backs to steal easy midrange yardage. Purdue’s defense will stack the box as they like to do, but against the Irish especially so. They’ll likely attack the inexperienced Notre Dame OL and put the onus on a Leonard led passing game that’s displayed a serious inability to move the ball down the field, one that the Boilermakers won’t show any respect to until made to do so. Thus, Leonard’s mobility is going to be tested heavily, and with information regarding his shoulder injury now public, he’ll be even more of a target than usual. Desperately trying to establish a passing game and failing was a big part of Notre Dame’s loss to NIU and to Marshall, and if they plan on doing that again against a BIG10 opponent like Purdue, things may turn out the same way.
Notre Dame
Like it or not, the Irish are targets across all of college football. In week 1, they were
targets because people wanted to spoil their “easy” route to the playoff, and after week 2, teams are looking to further embarrass a reeling Irish team and formally kill their CFP hopes. Going into the NIU game, most wanted to see the Irish either lean into the strength of the running game with Love and Price, or establish a more defined passing game between Leonard and his new receivers. For whatever reason, neither happened, and Freeman and Denbrock’s offense is once again faced with the same question against Purdue. Let’s just get the elephant in the room out of the way - the Irish passing game has been embarrassing thus far. According to Pete Sampson of the Athletic, the Irish are 130th in team pass efficiency, 110th in scoring offense, last in 20-yard completions with 1 (to Beaux Collins), and last in passing touchdowns with 0. That’s not to say the receivers are completely off the hook, but that’s mainly because they haven’t really had a shot to show if they’re the problem or not because of Leonard’s struggles. Unfortunately, tight-end play can’t be leaned on like it was in 2023, as Mitchell Evans is still ramping up his injury return, only recording 22 snaps against NIU, and 2nd string tight end Cooper Flanagan only grabbing 2 catches thus far. Leonard’s injury complicates things because we won’t truly know how mobile he’s going to be until game time, but if the Irish can't run him like the first drive against NIU, they’re going to have to change their approach.
Love and Price together have 238 yards on 37 carries for a 6.5-yard per-rush average
and 4 touchdowns, but neither has gotten over 14 carries in a game. Notre Dame needs to give its backs a chance to dominate the opposing defense if Leonard will ever have a chance of establishing an effective passing game, and make the Irish an actual threat on the outside.
Building a ground game Purdue has to respect will force the Boilermakers to jam the box and
leave their DBs in man, leaving it up to Notre Dame’s receivers to make something happen, and Leonard to put the ball where it needs to be. At the very least, Denbrock needs to get the Irish running backs into the passing game to get Leonard into a rhythm and make Purdue bite.
While Notre Dame’s defense couldn’t manage to stay off the field against NIU, their
performance is far less concerning than that of the offense. In week 1, they only surrendered 13
points to the Aggies, and even in the stinker against NIU, the Irish defense only allowed 16
points, with only 1 touchdown allowed on a somewhat flukey 83-yard pass. That’s 2 touchdowns through two games, and even if they’re on the field a lot against the Boilermakers, it’s pretty doubtful they give up a ton of points after the public embarrassment the team endured last week. Instead, they’ll need to focus on pressuring Card and registering some sacks, as the Irish defense are in a 10-way-tie for last with only 1 sack to their name. If Purdue can manage to keep Card safe, they’ll have a much easier time facing the Irish defense.
Prediction
Here we go again, prediction time. Technically, This column has been wrong on
prediction 2/2 times this season, but I had the Irish losing to TAMU and beating NIU to enter the Purdue matchup at 1-1 either way. Regardless, the whole season and our view of this Notre Dame team has been upended, and this matchup poses a much bigger threat than it should. This Irish offense doesn't inspire enough confidence to believe they completely figure things out this weekend, but after the lows of week 2, there’s just enough hope to believe they’re already at their lowest and things start heading in the right direction.
Look for the Irish offense to rush for at least 2 scores (a mark they’ve hit in both of their
first two games) and ideally a passing touchdown to start building some confidence for Leonard, but don't hold your breath. If Leonard struggles to run the ball against the Boilermakers, there's a possibility Denbrock looks to Angeli for some passing strength, and that makes for a higher chance we see an Irish passing score. To round things out, look for Mitch Jeter to get at least a few shots at redemption (please god don’t let another field goal attempt get blocked or make this man line up for anything over 55 yards) and add some points of his own to extend Notre Dame’s lead. As for Purdue, odds are the Boilermakers muster at least 14 points, as the Aggies managed 13 and the Huskies 16, along with likely at least one score via Hudson Card’s arm. As for special teams, the Irish have given up 5 field goals through 2 games, and it’d be pretty surprising if they don't give up at least another 2 or 3.
Reality has tempered everyone’s expectations for the 2024 Irish, and this game is likely
to be uglier and less polished than Notre Dame fans would like. This’ll be a close one whichever way it goes, but as long as the Irish from week 2 don't show up again, Freeman’s squad should pull out an unsatisfying win to somewhat calm Notre Dame’s troubled waters. Still, a struggling Irish offense keeps Notre Dame from covering the 8.5 point spread.
- Win (2-1)
- ND: 27 - 20 - PUR
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